We present an intuitive COVID-19 model that adds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make projections for infections and deaths for the US and 70 other countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for more than 95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths.

Our infections estimates include all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals in our estimates do not get tested, and thus do not get reported as a positive case. As of August, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US is roughly 4-8x higher than the reported cases. See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject. To get a sense of the number of individuals that are actively infectious, we recommend dividing the “currently infected” estimate by 2-4.

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Current US Projections

Updated Daily - Last Updated: October 5 (10pm ET):

Current Total (as of Oct 4): 209,791 deaths | Projected Total: 230,700 deaths by Nov 1, 2020 (Range: 221-245k)
Currently Infected (as of Oct 4): 1.2% (1 in 85) | Total Infected (as of Oct 4): 16.1% (1 in 6)

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COVID-19 Dashboard

To see more maps or for more details (including how we calculate the C19Pro Score), visit our Maps page.

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US Deaths Likelihoods

Below, we present the most likely dates that the US will surpass certain deaths milestones, as well as the probabilities of the US surpassing those milestones by different time horizons.

Last updated: October 5, 2020

US deaths surpass: By Oct 15 By Nov 1
225,000 <1% 78%
250,000 <1% <1%
275,000 <1% <1%
300,000 <1% <1%

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View Projections

Below you can find our projections for every US state and 70 countries (including all 27 European Union countries).

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US

United States    
Alabama Kentucky Ohio
Alaska Louisiana Oklahoma
Arizona Maine Oregon
Arkansas Maryland Pennsylvania
California Massachusetts Puerto Rico
Colorado Michigan Rhode Island
Connecticut Minnesota South Carolina
Delaware Mississippi South Dakota
District Of Columbia Missouri Tennessee
Florida Montana Texas
Georgia Nebraska Utah
Guam Nevada Vermont
Hawaii New Hampshire Virgin Islands
Idaho New Jersey Virginia
Illinois New Mexico Washington
Indiana New York West Virginia
Iowa North Carolina Wisconsin
Kansas North Dakota Wyoming

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US Counties

US Counties    
AZ - Maricopa FL - Orange NY - Nassau
CA - Alameda FL - Palm Beach NY - New York City
CA - Los Angeles IL - Cook NY - Suffolk
CA - Orange LA - Orleans NY - Westchester
CA - Riverside MA - Middlesex PA - Philadelphia
CA - Sacramento MA - Suffolk TX - Bexar
CA - San Bernardino MI - Wayne TX - Dallas
CA - San Diego NJ - Bergen TX - Harris
CA - Santa Clara NJ - Essex TX - Tarrant
FL - Broward NJ - Hudson WA - King
FL - Hillsborough NV - Clark  
FL - Miami-Dade NV - Washoe  

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Global Projections

Canada  
Alberta Ontario
British Columbia Quebec

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Europe    
Austria Greece Poland
Belarus Hungary Portugal
Belgium Iceland Romania
Bulgaria Ireland Serbia
Croatia Italy Slovakia
Cyprus Latvia Slovenia
Czechia Lithuania Spain
Denmark Luxembourg Sweden
Estonia Malta Switzerland
Finland Moldova Ukraine
France Netherlands United Kingdom
Germany Norway  

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Rest of World    
Algeria Ecuador Nigeria
Argentina Egypt Pakistan
Australia Honduras Panama
Bangladesh India Peru
Bolivia Indonesia Philippines
Brazil Iran Russia
Canada Israel Saudi Arabia
Chile Japan South Africa
China Kuwait South Korea
Colombia Malaysia Turkey
Cuba Mexico United Arab Emirates
Dominican Republic Morocco  

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US Summary

States are ordered by descending projected deaths (by November 1).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
United States 209,791 230,669 695 20,878 63 10% 221,556 244,811
New York 33,205 33,671 1,731 466 24 1% 33,219 35,772
Texas 16,320 18,660 644 2,340 81 14% 17,366 20,446
California 16,147 17,987 455 1,840 47 11% 16,616 20,812
Florida 14,671 17,153 799 2,482 116 17% 15,698 19,411
New Jersey 16,136 16,357 1,842 221 25 1% 16,143 17,075
Massachusetts 9,510 10,000 1,439 490 71 5% 9,553 10,817
Illinois 9,040 9,745 769 705 56 8% 9,201 10,714
Pennsylvania 8,195 8,852 691 657 51 8% 8,301 9,859
Georgia 7,162 7,972 751 810 76 11% 7,367 9,172
Michigan 7,124 7,456 747 332 33 5% 7,182 7,957
Arizona 5,706 6,050 831 344 47 6% 5,768 6,608
Louisiana 5,577 5,998 1,290 421 91 8% 5,716 6,520
Ohio 4,925 5,671 485 746 64 15% 5,123 6,629
Connecticut 4,513 4,596 1,289 83 23 2% 4,518 4,837
North Carolina 3,634 4,405 420 771 74 21% 3,945 5,143
Maryland 3,958 4,172 690 214 35 5% 3,982 4,556
Indiana 3,674 4,148 616 474 70 13% 3,732 4,882
South Carolina 3,453 3,929 763 476 92 14% 3,660 4,330
Virginia 3,270 3,718 436 448 53 14% 3,345 4,506
Mississippi 3,013 3,367 1,131 354 119 12% 3,139 3,788
Tennessee 2,577 3,176 465 599 88 23% 2,838 3,706
Missouri 2,259 3,012 491 753 123 33% 2,579 3,678
Alabama 2,558 2,874 586 316 64 12% 2,667 3,241
Minnesota 2,133 2,453 435 320 57 15% 2,196 2,904
Washington 2,142 2,367 311 225 30 11% 2,171 2,795
Colorado 2,068 2,225 386 157 27 8% 2,079 2,523
Wisconsin 1,377 1,977 340 600 103 44% 1,638 2,517
Arkansas 1,425 1,897 629 472 156 33% 1,647 2,294
Nevada 1,623 1,796 583 173 56 11% 1,677 2,026
Iowa 1,387 1,650 523 263 83 19% 1,476 1,965
Kentucky 1,209 1,466 328 257 57 21% 1,306 1,711
Oklahoma 1,051 1,308 331 257 65 24% 1,163 1,532
Rhode Island 1,118 1,198 1,131 80 76 7% 1,128 1,342
New Mexico 892 999 476 107 51 12% 919 1,160
Puerto Rico 686 882 276 196 61 29% 783 1,029
Kansas 690 881 302 191 65 28% 762 1,066
Delaware 645 693 712 48 49 7% 652 773
Oregon 572 686 163 114 27 20% 610 815
District of Columbia 631 657 931 26 36 4% 635 713
Nebraska 501 614 317 113 58 22% 536 744
Utah 478 588 183 110 34 23% 522 679
Idaho 482 579 324 97 54 20% 527 654
West Virginia 364 501 279 137 76 38% 426 614
North Dakota 274 475 624 201 264 74% 384 626
New Hampshire 443 459 337 16 12 4% 445 511
South Dakota 248 365 412 117 132 47% 295 474
Montana 187 294 275 107 100 57% 241 360
Hawaii 156 220 155 64 45 41% 186 277
Maine 142 154 115 12 9 9% 144 179
Alaska 58 86 117 28 38 48% 71 113
Guam 49 77 462 28 167 56% 61 102
Wyoming 53 71 123 18 31 34% 62 85
Vermont 58 59 95 1 2 2% 58 63
Virgin Islands 20 22 212 2 21 11% 20 25
Northern Mariana Islands 2 2 45 0 9 24% 2 4

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Europe Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-11-01). Our Europe estimates currently include 35 European countries (including the entire European Union).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Europe 201,470 221,688 374 20,218 34 10% 205,349 272,318
United Kingdom 42,440 44,747 663 2,307 34 5% 42,498 52,905
Italy 35,986 36,802 610 816 14 2% 36,004 39,450
Spain 32,086 36,769 783 4,683 100 15% 32,754 47,327
France 32,171 35,315 527 3,144 47 10% 32,209 51,525
Belgium 10,064 10,557 922 493 43 5% 10,097 12,110
Germany 9,533 9,988 120 455 5 5% 9,547 11,485
Netherlands 6,508 7,181 416 673 39 10% 6,529 9,150
Ukraine 4,495 6,660 151 2,165 49 48% 5,455 8,008
Romania 5,003 6,252 322 1,249 64 25% 5,547 7,484
Sweden 5,895 6,004 587 109 11 2% 5,901 6,394
Poland 2,630 3,733 98 1,103 29 42% 2,995 5,328
Portugal 2,005 2,275 221 270 26 13% 2,071 2,593
Switzerland 2,077 2,188 255 111 13 5% 2,103 2,383
Ireland 1,810 1,890 385 80 16 4% 1,816 2,223
Moldova 1,366 1,701 421 335 83 25% 1,510 1,999
Czechia 727 1,453 136 726 68 100% 1,037 2,132
Hungary 822 1,239 127 417 43 51% 1,044 1,543
Belarus 851 1,036 110 185 20 22% 906 1,303
Bulgaria 844 1,018 145 174 25 21% 923 1,168
Austria 813 951 107 138 16 17% 843 1,144
Serbia 754 776 111 22 3 3% 758 831
Denmark 658 717 123 59 10 9% 666 851
Greece 409 571 53 162 15 40% 480 730
Croatia 298 389 95 91 22 31% 328 519
Finland 345 372 67 27 5 8% 354 404
Norway 275 306 57 31 6 11% 285 338
Slovenia 155 195 94 40 19 26% 172 236
Luxembourg 125 135 219 10 16 8% 127 156
Lithuania 94 115 41 21 7 22% 103 133
Slovakia 55 108 20 53 10 97% 85 153
Estonia 67 82 62 15 12 23% 73 96
Malta 39 78 159 39 80 101% 55 121
Latvia 38 47 24 9 5 23% 42 54
Cyprus 22 24 28 2 3 10% 22 27
Iceland 10 12 36 2 6 21% 10 15

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Rest of World Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-11-01).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Rest of World 585,962 682,035 131 96,073 19 16% 629,860 768,187
Brazil 146,352 162,887 772 16,535 78 11% 153,103 177,652
India 101,782 128,959 94 27,177 20 27% 115,664 144,935
Mexico 79,088 88,664 695 9,576 75 12% 85,222 94,732
Peru 32,609 34,938 1,075 2,329 72 7% 33,060 38,114
Iran 26,957 32,153 388 5,196 63 19% 29,662 36,123
Colombia 26,712 30,568 607 3,856 77 14% 28,597 34,544
Argentina 21,018 30,038 671 9,020 201 43% 25,570 37,570
Russia 21,260 25,755 177 4,495 31 21% 23,838 33,154
South Africa 16,976 18,349 313 1,373 23 8% 17,334 20,481
Chile 12,979 14,514 766 1,535 81 12% 13,123 18,235
Indonesia 11,151 14,258 53 3,107 11 28% 12,375 16,735
Ecuador 11,647 12,609 726 962 55 8% 11,712 14,310
Turkey 8,441 10,478 126 2,037 24 24% 8,802 12,496
Canada 9,533 10,221 273 688 18 7% 9,601 11,769
Bolivia 8,101 8,927 775 826 72 10% 8,367 9,653
Philippines 5,776 7,575 70 1,799 17 31% 6,482 9,481
Pakistan 6,513 6,726 31 213 1 3% 6,549 7,087
Egypt 5,981 6,406 64 425 4 7% 6,021 7,361
Bangladesh 5,348 6,055 37 707 4 13% 5,669 6,962
Saudi Arabia 4,875 5,598 163 723 21 15% 5,067 6,383
China 4,739 4,745 3 6 0 0% 4,739 4,798
Morocco 2,330 3,478 95 1,148 31 49% 2,855 4,405
Honduras 2,422 2,868 294 446 46 18% 2,529 3,408
Panama 2,423 2,688 633 265 62 11% 2,512 3,020
Israel 1,719 2,483 291 764 90 44% 1,984 3,449
Dominican Republic 2,134 2,287 213 153 14 7% 2,184 2,468
Algeria 1,760 1,925 45 165 4 9% 1,791 2,188
Japan 1,598 1,757 14 159 1 10% 1,643 1,932
Nigeria 1,113 1,172 6 59 0 5% 1,122 1,275
Australia 894 951 38 57 2 6% 910 1,023
Kuwait 624 703 167 79 19 13% 637 837
United Arab Emirates 426 509 52 83 8 19% 430 650
South Korea 422 488 10 66 1 16% 435 583
Malaysia 137 160 5 23 1 16% 143 194
Cuba 122 146 13 24 2 20% 128 180