Announcement: We made our last daily update on March 7, 2021. Read more here.

We present a new, simple nowcasting model that estimates true infections in the US. We have estimates for all US states and all 3,000+ US counties. For our projections for the upcoming months, see our Path to Normality page.

For our historical maps, including county-level views, visit the Maps page.

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Recent Updates

For regular updates and insights, follow Youyang Gu on Twitter: 

See all of our past updates here.

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US Infections Estimates

More details | Detailed methodology

Last Updated: Monday, March 8, 2021 (1am ET)

Newly Vaccinated (as of Mar 7): 1,309,000 / day (651 / 100k)
Total Vaccinated (as of Mar 7): 17.9% (1 in 6 | 59.4 million)

Newly Infected (as of Feb 21): 152,000 / day (50 / 100k)
Currently Infected (as of Feb 21): 1 in 140 (0.7% | 2.4 million)
Total Infected (as of Feb 21): 28.6% (1 in 3 | 95.1 million)

Rt (as of Feb 21): 0.94
Adjusted Positivity Rate (as of Mar 7): 4.0%
Infection-to-Case Ratio (as of Mar 7): 2.6 (38% detection rate)

Our infections estimates include all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. As of early 2021, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US to be roughly 2-4x higher than the reported cases (25-50% detection rate). See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject. Because not all currently infected individuals are infectious, we recommend dividing the “currently infected” estimate by 2-4 to get a sense of the number of currently infectious individuals.

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View US Infections Estimates

Below, we have infection and vaccination estimates for the US, all 50 states, DC, and 4 US territories. For county-level estimates, see the next section.

United States    
Alabama Louisiana Oklahoma
Alaska Maine Oregon
Arizona Maryland Pennsylvania
Arkansas Massachusetts Puerto Rico
California Michigan Rhode Island
Colorado Minnesota South Carolina
Connecticut Mississippi South Dakota
Delaware Missouri Tennessee
District of Columbia Montana Texas
Florida Nebraska Utah
Georgia Nevada Vermont
Guam New Hampshire Virgin Islands
Hawaii New Jersey Virginia
Idaho New Mexico Washington
Illinois New York West Virginia
Indiana North Carolina Wisconsin
Iowa North Dakota Wyoming
Kansas Northern Mariana Islands  
Kentucky Ohio  

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US Counties Infections Estimates

We have infections estimates for all 3,000+ US counties (and county equivalents). Click on a state to view the counties in that state. You can then select the county to view detailed infection estimates. Or you can use our county-level summary page for fast lookup of specific counties.

US Counties (Summary)    
Alabama Kentucky North Dakota
Alaska Louisiana Ohio
Arizona Maine Oklahoma
Arkansas Maryland Oregon
California Massachusetts Pennsylvania
Colorado Michigan Rhode Island
Connecticut Minnesota South Carolina
Delaware Mississippi South Dakota
District of Columbia Missouri Tennessee
Florida Montana Texas
Georgia Nebraska Utah
Hawaii Nevada Vermont
Idaho New Hampshire Virginia
Illinois New Jersey Washington
Indiana New Mexico West Virginia
Iowa New York Wisconsin
Kansas North Carolina Wyoming

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The below sections are from our old COVID-19 projections model, and are no longer being updated. But we will leave them here for your reference.

COVID-19 Projections (Not Actively Updated)

Note: We ended our death forecasting project on October 5, 2020. See our blog post here. You can find the old project below.

We present an intuitive COVID-19 model that adds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make projections for infections and deaths for the US and 70 other countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for more than 95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths.

Old Updates

See our old updates here.

View Projections

Below you can find our projections for every US state and 70 countries (including all 27 European Union countries). For reproduction number estimates, you can see also visit our Infections Tracker page.

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US

United States    
Alabama Louisiana Oklahoma
Alaska Maine Oregon
Arizona Maryland Pennsylvania
Arkansas Massachusetts Puerto Rico
California Michigan Rhode Island
Colorado Minnesota South Carolina
Connecticut Mississippi South Dakota
Delaware Missouri Tennessee
District of Columbia Montana Texas
Florida Nebraska Utah
Georgia Nevada Vermont
Guam New Hampshire Virgin Islands
Hawaii New Jersey Virginia
Idaho New Mexico Washington
Illinois New York West Virginia
Indiana North Carolina Wisconsin
Iowa North Dakota Wyoming
Kansas Northern Mariana Islands  
Kentucky Ohio  

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US Counties

US Counties    
AZ - Maricopa FL - Orange NY - Nassau
CA - Alameda FL - Palm Beach NY - New York City
CA - Los Angeles IL - Cook NY - Suffolk
CA - Orange LA - Orleans NY - Westchester
CA - Riverside MA - Middlesex PA - Philadelphia
CA - Sacramento MA - Suffolk TX - Bexar
CA - San Bernardino MI - Wayne TX - Dallas
CA - San Diego NJ - Bergen TX - Harris
CA - Santa Clara NJ - Essex TX - Tarrant
FL - Broward NJ - Hudson WA - King
FL - Hillsborough NV - Clark  
FL - Miami-Dade NV - Washoe  

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Global Projections

Canada  
Alberta Ontario
British Columbia Quebec

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Europe    
Austria Greece Poland
Belarus Hungary Portugal
Belgium Iceland Romania
Bulgaria Ireland Serbia
Croatia Italy Slovakia
Cyprus Latvia Slovenia
Czechia Lithuania Spain
Denmark Luxembourg Sweden
Estonia Malta Switzerland
Finland Moldova Ukraine
France Netherlands United Kingdom
Germany Norway  

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Rest of World    
Algeria Ecuador Nigeria
Argentina Egypt Pakistan
Australia Honduras Panama
Bangladesh India Peru
Bolivia Indonesia Philippines
Brazil Iran Russia
Canada Israel Saudi Arabia
Chile Japan South Africa
China Kuwait South Korea
Colombia Malaysia Turkey
Cuba Mexico United Arab Emirates
Dominican Republic Morocco