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Last updated on: 2021-03-08 00:53:10 ET
Final Update: March 7, 2021 was our last daily update (containing infections estimates through February 21, 2021). This page will no longer be maintained. Read Youyang Gu's One Year Later blog post for a detailed explanation and for a list of alternate resources. Follow @youyanggu on Twitter for continued COVID-19 insights. Thank you for your support over the past year.
Estimates generated using only confirmed cases and testing data from The COVID Tracking Project. For county-level infection estimates, we use county case data from Johns Hopkins CSSE. For this project, we are nowcasting (what has happened/is happening) rather than forecasting (what will happen). See Youyang's blog for recommendations of forecasting models. See our methodology writeup, Estimating True Infections Revisited. You can download the raw estimates on GitHub. See Arizona Data Notes.
Note #1: Due to the inherent lag in the reporting of cases, we do not have estimates of infections for the last 14 days.
Note #2: Our infections estimates include all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. Because not all infected individuals are infectious, we recommend dividing the "currently infected” estimate by 2-4 to get a sense of the number of "currently infectious" individuals.
Note #3: These are merely estimates and are by no means definitive. Please be sure to also consult other sources, such as published reports and serology studies.
Vaccination Note: Vaccination progress on the state and national level is based on CDC data. See our writeup, Path to Herd Immunity, for more details about vaccination. You can also view vaccination progress for all states on our Maps page. Due to reporting delays, the data may lag by several days.
Holiday Note: Due to holiday reporting lags, cases and deaths may see a temporary, artificial decline on holidays such as New Year's, Christmas, and Thanksgiving. Starting on Jan 21, 2021, we apply a minor adjustment to our infections estimates to smooth some of the holiday dips.
Related forecasts: US | Arizona || All Arizona counties
Total confirmed cases: 826,454
Total deaths: 16,328