We present a new, simple nowcasting model that estimates true infections in the US. We have estimates for all US states and all 3,000+ US counties. For our projections for the upcoming months, see our Path to Normality page.
For more maps, including county-level views, visit the Maps page.
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Recent Updates
For regular updates and insights, follow Youyang Gu on Twitter: @youyanggu
- February 26: Major Announcement - After almost a year since covid19-projections.com was launched, we will be making the last daily update on Sunday, March 7. See Youyang’s blog post here.
- February 24: See our latest thoughts on why we expect a return to normal by summer.
- February 22: See our latest analysis on the impact of in-person university instruction on community transmission.
- February 18: See our thoughts on the UK B.1.1.7 variant here.
- February 17: Is political leaning a better predictor of the severity of the fall 2020 wave than existing immunity and levels of intervention? See our latest findings here.
- February 11: See our latest thoughts on why the recent attention on herd immunity may be overblown, and why we should shift our focus away from this topic. Our modeling suggests that it is increasingly unlikely that we will reach theoretical herd immunity in 2021.
- January 28: We are releasing raw and adjusted CDC vaccination time series data for download on GitHub. It contains every CDC vaccination update since they started releasing data on Dec 20, 2020.
- January 25: In December, we reported on why the CDC overestimates true infections in the US. They have since adjusted their estimates, which now closely matches covid19-projections.com.
- January 20: Our new county-level summary page is now searchable, allowing for fast lookup of specific counties. Originally created on Jan 5, we present the best and worst-impacted counties in a sortable, downloadable table format.
See more past updates here.
US Infections Estimates (Updated Daily)
Data from The COVID Tracking Project. Due to the inherent lag in the reporting of cases, we do not have estimates of infections for the last 14 days.
Last Updated: Saturday, February 27, 2021 (1am ET)
Newly Vaccinated (as of Feb 26): 749,000 / day
(468 / 100k)
Total Vaccinated (as of Feb 26): 14.4%
(1 in 7 | 47.6 million)
Newly Infected (as of Feb 12): 164,000 / day
(50 / 100k)
Currently Infected (as of Feb 12): 1 in 110
(0.9% | 3.0 million)
Total Infected (as of Feb 12): 28.2%
(1 in 4 | 93.5 million)
Rt (as of Feb 12): 0.89
Adjusted Positivity Rate (as of Feb 26): 4.6%
Infection-to-Case Ratio (as of Feb 26): 2.4 (41% detection rate)
Our infections estimates include all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. As of January 2021, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US to be roughly 2-4x higher than the reported cases (25-50% detection rate). See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject. Because not all currently infected individuals are infectious, we recommend dividing the “currently infected” estimate by 2-4 to get a sense of the number of currently infectious individuals.
View US Infections Estimates
Below, we have infection and vaccination estimates for the US, all 50 states, DC, and 4 US territories. For county-level estimates, see the next section.
US Counties Infections Estimates
We have infections estimates for all 3,000+ US counties (and county equivalents). Click on a state to view the counties in that state. You can then select the county to view detailed infection estimates. Or you can use our county-level summary page for fast lookup of specific counties.
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The below sections are from our old COVID-19 projections model, and are no longer being updated. But we will leave them here for your reference.
COVID-19 Projections (Not Actively Updated)
Note: We ended our death forecasting project on October 5, 2020. See our blog post here. You can find the old project below.
We present an intuitive COVID-19 model that adds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make projections for infections and deaths for the US and 70 other countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for more than 95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths.
Old Updates
See our old updates here.
View Projections
Below you can find our projections for every US state and 70 countries (including all 27 European Union countries). For reproduction number estimates, you can see also visit our Infections Tracker page.
US
US Counties
Global Projections
| Canada | |
|---|---|
| Alberta | Ontario |
| British Columbia | Quebec |