We present an intuitive model that builds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make COVID-19 infections and deaths projections for the US, all 50 US states, and more than 70 countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for >95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths.

Our infections estimate includes all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals in our estimates do not get tested, and thus do not get reported as a positive case. As of August, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US is roughly 4-8x higher than the reported cases. See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject.

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Current US Projections

Updated Daily - Last Updated: August 5 (2am ET):

Current Total: 156,798 deaths | Projected Total: 226,700 deaths by Nov 1, 2020 (Range: 198-266k)
Currently Infected: 1.9% (1 in 53) | Total Infected: 12.1% (1 in 8)

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COVID-19 Dashboard

To see more maps or for more details (including how we calculate the C19Pro Score), visit our Maps page.

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US Deaths Likelihoods

Below, we present the most likely dates that the US will surpass certain deaths milestones, as well as the probabilities of the US surpassing those milestones by different time horizons.

Last updated: August 4, 2020

US deaths surpass: Most likely date:
175,000 Aug 23, 2020
200,000 Sep 23, 2020


US deaths surpass: By Aug 15 By Sep 1 By Sep 15 By Oct 1 By Oct 15 By Nov 1
175,000 <1% 99% 99% 99% 99% >99%
200,000 <1% 1% 28% 69% 86% 96%
225,000 <1% <1% <1% 9% 24% 43%
250,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 9%
275,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 1%
300,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

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View Projections

Below you can find our projections for every US state and 63 countries (including all 27 European Union countries).

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US

United States    
Alabama Kentucky Ohio
Alaska Louisiana Oklahoma
Arizona Maine Oregon
Arkansas Maryland Pennsylvania
California Massachusetts Puerto Rico
Colorado Michigan Rhode Island
Connecticut Minnesota South Carolina
Delaware Mississippi South Dakota
District Of Columbia Missouri Tennessee
Florida Montana Texas
Georgia Nebraska Utah
Guam Nevada Vermont
Hawaii New Hampshire Virgin Islands
Idaho New Jersey Virginia
Illinois New Mexico Washington
Indiana New York West Virginia
Iowa North Carolina Wisconsin
Kansas North Dakota Wyoming

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US Counties

US Counties    
AZ - Maricopa FL - Orange NY - Nassau
CA - Alameda FL - Palm Beach NY - New York City
CA - Los Angeles IL - Cook NY - Suffolk
CA - Orange LA - Orleans NY - Westchester
CA - Riverside MA - Middlesex PA - Philadelphia
CA - Sacramento MA - Suffolk TX - Bexar
CA - San Bernardino MI - Wayne TX - Dallas
CA - San Diego NJ - Bergen TX - Harris
CA - Santa Clara NJ - Essex TX - Tarrant
FL - Broward NJ - Hudson WA - King
FL - Hillsborough NV - Clark  
FL - Miami-Dade NV - Washoe  

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Global Projections

Canada  
Alberta Ontario
British Columbia Quebec

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Europe    
Austria Greece Poland
Belarus Hungary Portugal
Belgium Iceland Romania
Bulgaria Ireland Serbia
Croatia Italy Slovakia
Cyprus Latvia Slovenia
Czechia Lithuania Spain
Denmark Luxembourg Sweden
Estonia Malta Switzerland
Finland Moldova Ukraine
France Netherlands United Kingdom
Germany Norway  

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Rest of World    
Algeria Ecuador Nigeria
Argentina Egypt Pakistan
Australia Honduras Panama
Bangladesh India Peru
Bolivia Indonesia Philippines
Brazil Iran Russia
Canada Israel Saudi Arabia
Chile Japan South Africa
China Kuwait South Korea
Colombia Malaysia Turkey
Cuba Mexico United Arab Emirates
Dominican Republic Morocco  

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US Summary

States are ordered by descending projected deaths (by November 1).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
United States 156,798 226,691 683 69,893 45% 198,635 265,745
New York 32,725 33,358 1,715 633 2% 32,759 36,286
California 9,684 18,870 478 9,186 95% 13,412 25,842
Texas 7,271 18,089 624 10,818 149% 12,746 23,903
New Jersey 15,857 16,809 1,892 952 6% 15,927 19,097
Florida 7,402 15,643 728 8,241 111% 11,464 20,750
Massachusetts 8,657 9,968 1,434 1,311 15% 8,764 12,674
Illinois 7,742 9,698 765 1,956 25% 8,143 12,852
Pennsylvania 7,248 8,423 658 1,175 16% 7,365 10,595
Michigan 6,471 7,335 734 864 13% 6,544 9,320
Arizona 3,845 6,828 938 2,983 78% 5,289 8,776
Georgia 3,921 6,685 630 2,764 71% 5,053 9,062
Louisiana 4,051 5,588 1,202 1,537 38% 4,610 7,037
Ohio 3,570 5,551 475 1,981 55% 4,142 8,003
Maryland 3,530 4,808 795 1,278 36% 3,742 7,401
Connecticut 4,437 4,654 1,305 217 5% 4,468 5,094
Indiana 2,996 4,273 635 1,277 43% 3,146 6,664
South Carolina 1,847 4,226 821 2,379 129% 2,996 5,629
Virginia 2,244 4,076 478 1,832 82% 2,555 7,125
North Carolina 2,061 3,948 376 1,887 92% 2,751 5,738
Mississippi 1,753 3,342 1,123 1,589 91% 2,414 4,826
Alabama 1,666 3,059 624 1,393 84% 2,272 4,131
Washington 1,619 2,816 370 1,197 74% 1,839 4,806
Colorado 1,849 2,599 451 750 41% 1,985 4,004
Missouri 1,290 2,439 397 1,149 89% 1,615 4,015
Tennessee 1,117 2,395 350 1,278 114% 1,638 3,387
Minnesota 1,660 2,277 404 617 37% 1,760 3,417
Wisconsin 961 1,768 304 807 84% 1,140 3,046
Nevada 862 1,750 568 888 103% 1,266 2,410
Iowa 888 1,428 453 540 61% 1,029 2,205
Kentucky 751 1,416 317 665 89% 924 2,373
Oklahoma 566 1,226 310 660 117% 790 1,887
Rhode Island 1,011 1,124 1,061 113 11% 1,033 1,299
Arkansas 490 1,121 371 631 129% 745 1,657
New Mexico 658 1,117 533 459 70% 787 1,682
Oregon 333 897 213 564 169% 522 1,494
Utah 321 800 249 479 149% 491 1,232
Idaho 210 798 447 588 280% 465 1,304
Puerto Rico 237 758 237 521 220% 402 1,459
Kansas 368 743 255 375 102% 483 1,198
Delaware 587 675 693 88 15% 602 821
District of Columbia 587 651 922 64 11% 599 758
New Hampshire 418 585 430 167 40% 437 904
Nebraska 332 533 276 201 61% 403 847
West Virginia 124 334 186 210 169% 178 639
Montana 64 252 236 188 294% 131 438
South Dakota 136 226 255 90 66% 167 340
North Dakota 107 217 285 110 103% 138 363
Maine 123 196 146 73 60% 141 323
Alaska 25 96 131 71 284% 48 194
Vermont 57 77 123 20 34% 61 107
Hawaii 27 75 53 48 179% 34 182
Wyoming 27 44 77 17 64% 33 66
Virgin Islands 8 18 176 10 131% 11 33
Guam 5 9 53 4 76% 5 17
Northern Mariana Islands 2 3 57 1 57% 2 5

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Europe Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-11-01). Our Europe estimates currently include 35 European countries (including the entire European Union).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Europe 188,835 208,125 351 19,290 10% 192,330 253,009
United Kingdom 46,295 50,323 745 4,028 9% 46,604 59,135
Italy 35,171 35,666 591 495 1% 35,194 37,472
France 30,297 31,248 466 951 3% 30,318 36,206
Spain 28,498 30,555 651 2,057 7% 28,572 39,088
Belgium 9,852 10,093 881 241 2% 9,882 10,784
Germany 9,163 9,968 120 805 9% 9,194 12,552
Netherlands 6,170 6,371 369 201 3% 6,185 7,120
Sweden 5,747 6,086 595 339 6% 5,816 6,621
Romania 2,480 5,829 300 3,349 135% 3,546 10,349
Ukraine 1,788 3,539 80 1,751 98% 2,302 5,984
Poland 1,738 2,631 69 893 51% 1,897 4,623
Portugal 1,739 2,080 202 341 20% 1,753 2,882
Switzerland 1,981 2,060 240 79 4% 1,994 2,336
Ireland 1,763 1,832 374 69 4% 1,776 2,026
Moldova 810 1,439 356 629 78% 1,037 2,182
Serbia 605 1,304 187 699 116% 835 2,597
Bulgaria 415 1,300 186 885 213% 700 2,539
Austria 719 844 95 125 17% 740 1,137
Belarus 574 825 87 251 44% 721 1,021
Denmark 616 713 123 97 16% 631 932
Hungary 598 680 70 82 14% 605 892
Czechia 383 585 55 202 53% 417 1,034
Croatia 154 459 113 305 198% 239 963
Finland 331 375 68 44 13% 341 467
Greece 209 324 30 115 55% 236 535
Norway 256 294 55 38 15% 263 389
Luxembourg 118 212 345 94 80% 138 423
Slovenia 123 182 87 59 48% 135 295
Lithuania 80 99 35 19 24% 85 133
Estonia 63 73 55 10 16% 69 85
Latvia 32 42 22 10 32% 34 57
Slovakia 29 40 7 11 38% 30 66
Cyprus 19 27 31 8 43% 22 43
Iceland 10 14 41 4 38% 10 22
Malta 9 13 26 4 41% 9 19

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Rest of World Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-11-01).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Rest of World 333,435 652,470 126 319,035 96% 444,337 1,002,014
Brazil 95,819 172,210 816 76,391 80% 115,647 261,011
India 39,795 123,100 90 83,305 209% 70,588 182,927
Mexico 48,869 87,113 683 38,244 78% 70,957 125,721
Colombia 11,315 33,842 672 22,527 199% 20,116 53,466
Peru 20,007 30,672 943 10,665 53% 24,024 45,460
Iran 17,617 29,219 352 11,602 66% 22,137 40,881
South Africa 8,884 24,116 412 15,232 171% 14,961 33,753
Russia 14,327 21,809 150 7,482 52% 15,721 37,788
Chile 9,745 14,063 742 4,318 44% 10,529 24,972
Argentina 3,979 13,886 310 9,907 249% 7,670 24,064
Indonesia 5,388 13,193 49 7,805 145% 7,480 25,783
Canada 9,005 9,417 252 412 5% 9,040 10,540
Bolivia 3,320 8,493 738 5,173 156% 5,078 14,023
Ecuador 5,808 7,494 431 1,686 29% 6,045 10,443
Turkey 5,765 7,163 86 1,398 24% 5,825 10,786
Pakistan 5,999 7,126 33 1,127 19% 6,254 8,683
Egypt 4,912 6,676 67 1,764 36% 5,134 9,083
Bangladesh 3,234 5,443 33 2,209 68% 3,680 9,018
Philippines 2,115 5,160 48 3,045 144% 2,399 13,177
China 4,676 5,139 4 463 10% 4,676 7,452
Saudi Arabia 2,984 4,834 141 1,850 62% 3,575 6,969
Honduras 1,400 3,576 367 2,176 155% 2,076 6,982
Panama 1,522 3,352 789 1,830 120% 2,155 5,742
Morocco 417 2,781 76 2,364 567% 781 7,316
Dominican Republic 1,213 2,466 230 1,253 103% 1,572 4,383
Algeria 1,248 2,284 53 1,036 83% 1,425 4,547
Japan 1,023 1,704 13 681 67% 1,042 5,279
Israel 561 1,638 192 1,077 192% 838 3,249
Nigeria 910 1,391 7 481 53% 1,019 2,443
Australia 247 1,149 46 902 365% 489 2,610
Kuwait 465 869 207 404 87% 514 1,777
United Arab Emirates 351 448 46 97 28% 359 731
South Korea 302 375 7 73 24% 302 617
Malaysia 125 153 5 28 22% 135 171
Cuba 88 116 10 28 32% 94 167