We present a new, simple nowcasting model that estimates true infections in the US. We have estimates for all US states and all 3,000+ US counties.
For more maps, including county-level views, visit the Maps page.
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Recent Updates
For regular updates and insights, follow Youyang Gu on Twitter: @youyanggu
- January 20: Our new county-level summary page is now searchable, allowing for fast lookup of specific counties. Originally created on Jan 5, we present the best and worst-impacted counties in a sortable, downloadable table format.
- January 14: We broke down vaccine doses administered into 1st and 2nd doses. You can find this on our Path to Herd Immunity page, or on all of our plots.
- January 12: We added vaccination plots to the infections page for every US state (and nationally) based on the latest CDC data. For example, see the vaccination progress for the US. Scroll down or click here to find your state. See a map of the vaccination progress for all 50 states here.
- January 7: See our new thread for an analysis of existing COVID-19 population immunity and its correlation with the severity of this current wave.
- January 5: We made a major update to our Path to Herd Immunity page, incorporating the latest vaccination data from the CDC and preliminary information on the new COVID-19 strain.
See more past updates here.
US Infections Estimates (Updated Daily)
Data from The COVID Tracking Project. Due to the inherent lag in the reporting of cases, we do not have estimates of infections for the last 14 days.
Last Updated: Friday, January 22, 2021 (1am ET)
Newly Vaccinated (as of Jan 21): 764,000 / day
(275 / 100k)
Total Vaccinated (as of Jan 21): 4.6%
(1 in 22 | 15.1 million)
Newly Infected (as of Jan 7): 553,000 / day
(170 / 100k)
Currently Infected (as of Jan 7): 1 in 40
(2.8% | 9.2 million)
Total Infected (as of Jan 7): 24.7%
(1 in 4 | 81.9 million)
Rt (as of Jan 7): 0.92
Adjusted Positivity Rate (as of Jan 21): 9.2%
Infection-to-Case Ratio (as of Jan 21): 3.0 (34% detection rate)
Our infections estimates include all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. As of January 2021, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US to be roughly 2-4x higher than the reported cases (25-50% detection rate). See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject. Because not all currently infected individuals are infectious, we recommend dividing the “currently infected” estimate by 2-4 to get a sense of the number of currently infectious individuals.
View US Infections Estimates
New January 12: We also include actual CDC vaccination progress data alongside our infection estimates for each state.
Below, we have infection estimates for the US, all 50 states, DC, and 4 US territories. For county-level estimates, see the next section.
US Counties Infections Estimates
New January 20: Our new county-level summary page is now searchable, allowing for fast lookup of specific counties.
We have infections estimates for all 3,000+ US counties (and county equivalents). Click on a state to view the counties in that state. You can then select the county to view detailed infection estimates.
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The below sections are from our old COVID-19 projections model, and are no longer being updated. But we will leave them here for your reference.
COVID-19 Projections (Not Actively Updated)
Note: We ended our death forecasting project on October 5, 2020. You can find the old project below.
We present an intuitive COVID-19 model that adds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make projections for infections and deaths for the US and 70 other countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for more than 95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths.
Old Updates
See our old updates here.
View Projections
Below you can find our projections for every US state and 70 countries (including all 27 European Union countries). For reproduction number estimates, you can see also visit our Infections Tracker page.
US
US Counties
Global Projections
| Canada | |
|---|---|
| Alberta | Ontario |
| British Columbia | Quebec |