We present an intuitive model that builds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make COVID-19 infections and deaths projections for the US, all 50 US states, and more than 70 countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for over 99% of all global COVID-19 deaths.
Note that our infections estimate includes all infected individuals, not just those that took a COVID-19 test kit and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals do not get tested, and thus do not get reported as a positive case. As of mid-May, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US is ~5x higher than the reported cases.
On this page:
- View US projections
- View global projections
- Likelihoods of death milestones in US
- Summary of US projections
- Summary of Europe projections
- Summary of Rest of World projections
Recent Updates
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Jun 1: We have lowered our US projections after an analysis of recent studies showing promising treatment results, possible seasonality effects, high mask-wearing compliance, and slow reopenings.
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May 29: We ran a simulation on what would happen if just 20% of infected individuals reduced their own transmission by 25% (such as by self-quarantining immediately after showing symptoms). US deaths would be 30% lower by May 29, and up to 50% lower by September. See the results here.
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May 27: We added 7 new countries (Australia, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Honduras, Kuwait, UAE), 2 Canadian provinces (Alberta and British Columbia), and 20 US counties. We now have projections for 71 countries (>99% of all global COVID-19 deaths), 4 Canadian provinces (99% of Canadian COVID-19 deaths), 56 US states and territories, and 34 US counties (including the top 30 most populous counties).
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May 26: We have extended our projections to September 1, 2020.
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May 17: We added a tests-per-day target for each region based on Harvard Global Health Institute’s study that recommends 10 contacts per infected individual. You can see this estimate above the “Newly Infected” graph on each projection page (e.g. we estimate 1.3 million tests/day are needed for the US). Download the raw data here.
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May 14: See how the US would have fared if everyone began social distancing one week earlier or one week later.
State-by-state Reopenings: To date, we are one of the only models referenced by the CDC that factors in individual state re-openings. We update each US state’s reopening timeline according to The New York Times. Learn more about our social distancing assumptions here.
Current Projection for US - Updated Daily - Last Updated: Jun 3 (1am ET):
Current Total: 106,177 deaths | Projected Total: 187,171 deaths by Sep 1, 2020 (Range: 127-281k)
Currently Infected: 0.5% | Total Infected: 4.1%
US Deaths Likelihoods
Below, we present the most likely dates that the US will surpass certain deaths milestones, as well as the probabilities of the US surpassing those milestones by different time horizons. For example, we estimate a 76% chance that the US surpasses 125,000 deaths by July 1, with June 26 being the most likely date.
Last updated: Jun 3, 2020
| US deaths surpass: | Most likely date: |
|---|---|
| 110,000 | Jun 7, 2020 |
| 120,000 | Jun 19, 2020 |
| 125,000 | Jun 26, 2020 |
| 130,000 | Jul 2, 2020 |
| 140,000 | Jul 14, 2020 |
| 150,000 | Jul 24, 2020 |
| US deaths surpass: | By Jun 15 | By Jul 1 | By Jul 15 | By Aug 1 | By Aug 15 | By Sep 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 125,000 | <1% | 70% | 91% | 96% | 98% | 98% |
| 150,000 | <1% | <1% | 27% | 56% | 67% | 74% |
| 175,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 24% | 41% | 53% |
| 200,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5% | 22% | 35% |
| 250,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 12% |
| 300,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
View Projections
Below you can find our projections for every US state and 63 countries (including all 27 European Union countries).
US
US Counties
Global Projections
| Canada | |
|---|---|
| Alberta | Ontario |
| British Columbia | Quebec |
US Summary
States are ordered by descending projected deaths (by September 1).
| Current Deaths | Projected Deaths - Mean | Projected Deaths / 1M | Additional Deaths - Mean | Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) | Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile | Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 106,177 | 187,171 | 564 | 80,994 | 76% | 127,420 | 280,129 |
| New York | 29,968 | 33,033 | 1,698 | 3,065 | 10% | 30,652 | 38,033 |
| New Jersey | 11,771 | 14,285 | 1,608 | 2,514 | 21% | 12,605 | 16,558 |
| California | 4,305 | 13,003 | 329 | 8,698 | 202% | 5,979 | 24,074 |
| Illinois | 5,525 | 10,520 | 830 | 4,995 | 90% | 7,344 | 14,223 |
| Massachusetts | 7,085 | 9,508 | 1,368 | 2,423 | 34% | 7,935 | 12,498 |
| Pennsylvania | 5,667 | 9,418 | 736 | 3,751 | 66% | 6,686 | 13,902 |
| Florida | 2,530 | 7,139 | 332 | 4,609 | 182% | 3,456 | 12,273 |
| Michigan | 5,553 | 6,991 | 700 | 1,438 | 26% | 6,002 | 9,477 |
| Ohio | 2,259 | 6,756 | 578 | 4,497 | 199% | 3,581 | 10,704 |
| Maryland | 2,597 | 6,117 | 1,012 | 3,520 | 136% | 3,457 | 9,798 |
| Georgia | 2,102 | 5,888 | 555 | 3,786 | 180% | 3,078 | 9,889 |
| Texas | 1,716 | 5,297 | 183 | 3,581 | 209% | 2,599 | 10,288 |
| Connecticut | 3,972 | 5,266 | 1,477 | 1,294 | 33% | 4,301 | 6,866 |
| Indiana | 2,197 | 4,869 | 723 | 2,672 | 122% | 2,852 | 8,088 |
| Louisiana | 2,835 | 4,235 | 911 | 1,400 | 49% | 3,221 | 6,890 |
| Virginia | 1,407 | 4,158 | 487 | 2,751 | 196% | 1,915 | 7,586 |
| Minnesota | 1,082 | 4,009 | 711 | 2,927 | 271% | 1,849 | 6,362 |
| Colorado | 1,474 | 3,831 | 665 | 2,357 | 160% | 2,024 | 6,515 |
| North Carolina | 961 | 3,455 | 329 | 2,494 | 260% | 1,693 | 5,968 |
| Arizona | 943 | 3,017 | 414 | 2,074 | 220% | 1,320 | 5,746 |
| Missouri | 786 | 2,616 | 426 | 1,830 | 233% | 1,310 | 4,389 |
| Mississippi | 767 | 2,548 | 856 | 1,781 | 232% | 1,128 | 4,167 |
| Alabama | 653 | 2,342 | 478 | 1,689 | 259% | 1,191 | 3,859 |
| South Carolina | 501 | 1,793 | 348 | 1,292 | 258% | 820 | 3,092 |
| Rhode Island | 732 | 1,723 | 1,626 | 991 | 135% | 1,155 | 2,327 |
| Washington | 1,129 | 1,718 | 226 | 589 | 52% | 1,233 | 2,995 |
| Wisconsin | 607 | 1,692 | 291 | 1,085 | 179% | 902 | 3,036 |
| Iowa | 561 | 1,624 | 515 | 1,063 | 189% | 1,072 | 2,362 |
| Kentucky | 442 | 1,124 | 252 | 682 | 154% | 605 | 2,149 |
| New Mexico | 367 | 1,105 | 527 | 738 | 201% | 578 | 1,721 |
| Tennessee | 381 | 1,029 | 151 | 648 | 170% | 535 | 1,946 |
| Delaware | 373 | 896 | 920 | 523 | 140% | 538 | 1,381 |
| Nevada | 417 | 891 | 289 | 474 | 114% | 526 | 1,596 |
| District of Columbia | 470 | 764 | 1,083 | 294 | 63% | 537 | 1,207 |
| New Hampshire | 256 | 741 | 545 | 485 | 189% | 341 | 1,437 |
| Oklahoma | 339 | 579 | 146 | 240 | 71% | 407 | 1,068 |
| Nebraska | 170 | 492 | 254 | 322 | 189% | 303 | 785 |
| Arkansas | 136 | 458 | 152 | 322 | 237% | 225 | 844 |
| Utah | 113 | 450 | 140 | 337 | 298% | 198 | 834 |
| Kansas | 222 | 385 | 132 | 163 | 73% | 251 | 877 |
| Oregon | 157 | 246 | 58 | 89 | 57% | 177 | 423 |
| Puerto Rico | 138 | 200 | 63 | 62 | 45% | 160 | 290 |
| South Dakota | 62 | 197 | 223 | 135 | 218% | 102 | 420 |
| North Dakota | 65 | 185 | 243 | 120 | 185% | 116 | 337 |
| Maine | 94 | 156 | 116 | 62 | 66% | 117 | 270 |
| West Virginia | 78 | 133 | 74 | 55 | 71% | 95 | 215 |
| Idaho | 83 | 106 | 59 | 23 | 28% | 93 | 135 |
| Vermont | 55 | 65 | 104 | 10 | 18% | 60 | 73 |
| Wyoming | 17 | 45 | 78 | 28 | 165% | 32 | 75 |
| Hawaii | 17 | 21 | 15 | 4 | 24% | 19 | 22 |
| Montana | 17 | 21 | 20 | 4 | 24% | 18 | 24 |
| Alaska | 10 | 12 | 16 | 2 | 20% | 11 | 13 |
| Virgin Islands | 6 | 8 | 76 | 2 | 33% | 7 | 9 |
| Guam | 5 | 7 | 42 | 2 | 40% | 6 | 8 |
| Northern Mariana Islands | 2 | 4 | 72 | 2 | 100% | 3 | 5 |
Europe Summary
Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-09-01). Our Europe estimates currently include 35 European countries (including the entire European Union).
| Current Deaths | Projected Deaths - Mean | Projected Deaths / 1M | Additional Deaths - Mean | Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) | Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile | Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 170,029 | 202,248 | 341 | 32,219 | 19% | 179,873 | 249,628 |
| United Kingdom | 39,452 | 48,188 | 714 | 8,736 | 22% | 42,502 | 54,934 |
| Italy | 33,530 | 38,174 | 632 | 4,644 | 14% | 34,768 | 43,914 |
| France | 28,943 | 31,020 | 463 | 2,077 | 7% | 29,155 | 37,830 |
| Spain | 27,127 | 28,824 | 614 | 1,697 | 6% | 27,319 | 34,261 |
| Germany | 8,563 | 10,336 | 125 | 1,773 | 21% | 8,892 | 15,157 |
| Belgium | 9,505 | 10,200 | 890 | 695 | 7% | 9,662 | 11,529 |
| Sweden | 4,468 | 7,765 | 759 | 3,297 | 74% | 6,372 | 12,116 |
| Netherlands | 5,986 | 7,001 | 405 | 1,015 | 17% | 6,226 | 8,667 |
| Ukraine | 733 | 3,267 | 74 | 2,534 | 346% | 1,412 | 5,436 |
| Poland | 1,092 | 2,212 | 58 | 1,120 | 103% | 1,355 | 3,903 |
| Portugal | 1,436 | 2,112 | 206 | 676 | 47% | 1,667 | 3,104 |
| Switzerland | 1,920 | 2,060 | 240 | 140 | 7% | 1,947 | 2,321 |
| Romania | 1,288 | 2,056 | 106 | 768 | 60% | 1,614 | 3,105 |
| Ireland | 1,658 | 1,818 | 371 | 160 | 10% | 1,685 | 2,391 |
| Moldova | 307 | 1,391 | 344 | 1,084 | 353% | 691 | 2,063 |
| Hungary | 532 | 902 | 92 | 370 | 70% | 614 | 1,645 |
| Austria | 669 | 743 | 84 | 74 | 11% | 694 | 865 |
| Belarus | 243 | 687 | 73 | 444 | 183% | 389 | 1,861 |
| Denmark | 580 | 683 | 118 | 103 | 18% | 619 | 816 |
| Bulgaria | 144 | 522 | 75 | 378 | 262% | 260 | 872 |
| Finland | 320 | 394 | 71 | 74 | 23% | 339 | 537 |
| Czechia | 323 | 371 | 35 | 48 | 15% | 349 | 413 |
| Serbia | 245 | 324 | 47 | 79 | 32% | 278 | 423 |
| Norway | 237 | 265 | 49 | 28 | 12% | 247 | 303 |
| Greece | 179 | 220 | 21 | 41 | 23% | 200 | 256 |
| Croatia | 103 | 139 | 34 | 36 | 35% | 115 | 194 |
| Lithuania | 71 | 136 | 49 | 65 | 92% | 96 | 220 |
| Luxembourg | 110 | 124 | 202 | 14 | 13% | 114 | 142 |
| Slovenia | 109 | 124 | 60 | 15 | 14% | 113 | 145 |
| Estonia | 68 | 81 | 61 | 13 | 19% | 78 | 86 |
| Slovakia | 28 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 14% | 29 | 37 |
| Latvia | 24 | 31 | 16 | 7 | 29% | 30 | 33 |
| Cyprus | 17 | 20 | 23 | 3 | 18% | 19 | 21 |
| Malta | 9 | 15 | 30 | 6 | 67% | 13 | 16 |
| Iceland | 10 | 11 | 32 | 1 | 10% | 10 | 12 |
Rest of World Summary
Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-09-01).
| Current Deaths | Projected Deaths - Mean | Projected Deaths / 1M | Additional Deaths - Mean | Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) | Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile | Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | 100,411 | 433,146 | 83 | 332,735 | 331% | 214,445 | 691,016 |
| Brazil | 31,199 | 130,279 | 617 | 99,080 | 318% | 64,884 | 245,586 |
| Mexico | 10,637 | 76,321 | 598 | 65,684 | 618% | 36,521 | 102,522 |
| India | 5,829 | 57,757 | 42 | 51,928 | 891% | 17,494 | 76,653 |
| Russia | 5,031 | 25,497 | 175 | 20,466 | 407% | 9,710 | 42,914 |
| Peru | 4,634 | 22,030 | 678 | 17,396 | 375% | 8,835 | 40,340 |
| Canada | 7,477 | 12,962 | 346 | 5,485 | 73% | 8,465 | 22,206 |
| Iran | 7,942 | 12,083 | 146 | 4,141 | 52% | 8,785 | 20,024 |
| Chile | 1,188 | 10,931 | 577 | 9,743 | 820% | 9,168 | 12,960 |
| Colombia | 1,014 | 10,143 | 201 | 9,129 | 900% | 6,114 | 13,257 |
| South Africa | 755 | 10,032 | 171 | 9,277 | 1229% | 6,041 | 12,782 |
| Pakistan | 1,621 | 8,605 | 40 | 6,984 | 431% | 3,598 | 15,485 |
| Bangladesh | 709 | 6,624 | 41 | 5,915 | 834% | 3,600 | 8,789 |
| Ecuador | 3,438 | 6,118 | 352 | 2,680 | 78% | 4,079 | 11,866 |
| Egypt | 1,052 | 6,093 | 61 | 5,041 | 479% | 2,474 | 9,619 |
| Turkey | 4,585 | 5,502 | 66 | 917 | 20% | 4,767 | 7,489 |
| Indonesia | 1,663 | 5,418 | 20 | 3,755 | 226% | 2,842 | 9,400 |
| China | 4,638 | 4,645 | 3 | 7 | 0% | 4,638 | 4,685 |
| Saudi Arabia | 549 | 4,095 | 119 | 3,546 | 646% | 2,131 | 5,292 |
| Bolivia | 376 | 2,902 | 252 | 2,526 | 672% | 1,665 | 4,398 |
| Argentina | 569 | 2,653 | 59 | 2,084 | 366% | 1,289 | 4,101 |
| Nigeria | 314 | 1,877 | 9 | 1,563 | 498% | 615 | 3,250 |
| Philippines | 966 | 1,809 | 17 | 843 | 87% | 1,151 | 3,269 |
| Kuwait | 226 | 1,477 | 351 | 1,251 | 554% | 746 | 2,158 |
| Japan | 902 | 1,429 | 11 | 527 | 58% | 934 | 2,124 |
| Honduras | 225 | 1,114 | 114 | 889 | 395% | 550 | 1,918 |
| Algeria | 667 | 1,076 | 25 | 409 | 61% | 753 | 2,052 |
| Panama | 352 | 1,032 | 243 | 680 | 193% | 512 | 1,941 |
| Dominican Republic | 515 | 869 | 81 | 354 | 69% | 618 | 1,339 |
| United Arab Emirates | 269 | 512 | 52 | 243 | 90% | 334 | 1,047 |
| Israel | 290 | 355 | 42 | 65 | 22% | 314 | 464 |
| South Korea | 273 | 325 | 6 | 52 | 19% | 280 | 434 |
| Morocco | 206 | 230 | 6 | 24 | 12% | 216 | 260 |
| Malaysia | 115 | 145 | 5 | 30 | 26% | 130 | 158 |
| Australia | 102 | 108 | 4 | 6 | 6% | 103 | 125 |
| Cuba | 83 | 98 | 9 | 15 | 18% | 89 | 109 |