We present an intuitive model that builds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make COVID-19 infections and deaths projections for the US, all 50 US states, and more than 70 countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for >95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths.

Our infections estimate includes all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals in our estimates do not get tested, and thus do not get reported as a positive case. As of August, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US is roughly 4-8x higher than the reported cases. See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject.

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Current US Projections

Updated Daily - Last Updated: August 9 (3am ET):

Current Total: 162,420 deaths | Projected Total: 231,300 deaths by Nov 1, 2020 (Range: 204-270k)
Currently Infected: 1.9% (1 in 53) | Total Infected: 12.7% (1 in 8)

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COVID-19 Dashboard

To see more maps or for more details (including how we calculate the C19Pro Score), visit our Maps page.

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US Deaths Likelihoods

Below, we present the most likely dates that the US will surpass certain deaths milestones, as well as the probabilities of the US surpassing those milestones by different time horizons.

Last updated: August 9, 2020

US deaths surpass: Most likely date:
175,000 Aug 21, 2020
200,000 Sep 18, 2020


US deaths surpass: By Aug 15 By Sep 1 By Sep 15 By Oct 1 By Oct 15 By Nov 1
175,000 <1% 99% 99% >99% >99% >99%
200,000 <1% 2% 42% 85% 97% 99%
225,000 <1% <1% <1% 11% 32% 54%
250,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% 3% 12%
275,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%
300,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

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View Projections

Below you can find our projections for every US state and 63 countries (including all 27 European Union countries).

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US

United States    
Alabama Kentucky Ohio
Alaska Louisiana Oklahoma
Arizona Maine Oregon
Arkansas Maryland Pennsylvania
California Massachusetts Puerto Rico
Colorado Michigan Rhode Island
Connecticut Minnesota South Carolina
Delaware Mississippi South Dakota
District Of Columbia Missouri Tennessee
Florida Montana Texas
Georgia Nebraska Utah
Guam Nevada Vermont
Hawaii New Hampshire Virgin Islands
Idaho New Jersey Virginia
Illinois New Mexico Washington
Indiana New York West Virginia
Iowa North Carolina Wisconsin
Kansas North Dakota Wyoming

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US Counties

US Counties    
AZ - Maricopa FL - Orange NY - Nassau
CA - Alameda FL - Palm Beach NY - New York City
CA - Los Angeles IL - Cook NY - Suffolk
CA - Orange LA - Orleans NY - Westchester
CA - Riverside MA - Middlesex PA - Philadelphia
CA - Sacramento MA - Suffolk TX - Bexar
CA - San Bernardino MI - Wayne TX - Dallas
CA - San Diego NJ - Bergen TX - Harris
CA - Santa Clara NJ - Essex TX - Tarrant
FL - Broward NJ - Hudson WA - King
FL - Hillsborough NV - Clark  
FL - Miami-Dade NV - Washoe  

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Global Projections

Canada  
Alberta Ontario
British Columbia Quebec

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Europe    
Austria Greece Poland
Belarus Hungary Portugal
Belgium Iceland Romania
Bulgaria Ireland Serbia
Croatia Italy Slovakia
Cyprus Latvia Slovenia
Czechia Lithuania Spain
Denmark Luxembourg Sweden
Estonia Malta Switzerland
Finland Moldova Ukraine
France Netherlands United Kingdom
Germany Norway  

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Rest of World    
Algeria Ecuador Nigeria
Argentina Egypt Pakistan
Australia Honduras Panama
Bangladesh India Peru
Bolivia Indonesia Philippines
Brazil Iran Russia
Canada Israel Saudi Arabia
Chile Japan South Africa
China Kuwait South Korea
Colombia Malaysia Turkey
Cuba Mexico United Arab Emirates
Dominican Republic Morocco  

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US Summary

States are ordered by descending projected deaths (by November 1).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
United States 162,420 231,291 697 68,871 42% 204,134 269,269
New York 32,768 33,356 1,715 588 2% 32,799 35,926
Texas 9,058 19,549 674 10,491 116% 14,479 25,662
California 10,307 19,374 490 9,067 88% 14,057 26,546
Florida 8,109 16,809 783 8,700 107% 12,433 22,300
New Jersey 15,869 16,685 1,878 816 5% 15,933 19,096
Massachusetts 8,721 9,925 1,428 1,204 14% 8,834 12,485
Illinois 7,840 9,858 778 2,018 26% 8,215 13,033
Pennsylvania 7,310 8,497 664 1,187 16% 7,420 10,643
Michigan 6,520 7,375 738 855 13% 6,597 9,029
Georgia 4,186 7,254 683 3,068 73% 5,524 9,843
Arizona 4,137 6,930 952 2,793 68% 5,511 8,685
Louisiana 4,207 5,646 1,215 1,439 34% 4,782 6,950
Ohio 3,668 5,564 476 1,896 52% 4,217 7,819
Maryland 3,577 4,849 802 1,272 36% 3,776 7,408
Connecticut 4,441 4,578 1,284 137 3% 4,463 4,880
Indiana 3,036 4,225 628 1,189 39% 3,178 6,354
South Carolina 2,007 4,210 818 2,203 110% 3,105 5,559
Virginia 2,322 4,168 488 1,846 80% 2,642 7,424
North Carolina 2,184 4,067 388 1,883 86% 2,921 5,798
Mississippi 1,874 3,334 1,120 1,460 78% 2,521 4,449
Alabama 1,755 3,030 618 1,275 73% 2,332 3,991
Washington 1,688 2,981 392 1,293 77% 2,021 4,752
Tennessee 1,215 2,550 373 1,335 110% 1,800 3,572
Colorado 1,857 2,514 436 657 35% 1,979 3,738
Minnesota 1,689 2,295 407 606 36% 1,784 3,380
Missouri 1,327 2,286 372 959 72% 1,603 3,443
Nevada 949 1,898 616 949 100% 1,385 2,562
Wisconsin 996 1,819 312 823 83% 1,213 2,943
Iowa 927 1,486 471 559 60% 1,083 2,193
Kentucky 772 1,331 298 559 72% 942 2,092
Oklahoma 603 1,274 322 671 111% 847 1,917
Arkansas 535 1,193 395 658 123% 813 1,705
Rhode Island 1,014 1,123 1,060 109 11% 1,034 1,295
New Mexico 681 1,105 527 424 62% 811 1,601
Puerto Rico 274 963 302 689 252% 526 1,714
Oregon 355 865 205 510 144% 532 1,381
Utah 335 738 230 403 120% 479 1,130
Idaho 235 737 412 502 213% 464 1,085
Kansas 380 702 241 322 85% 483 1,107
Delaware 590 672 690 82 14% 604 808
District of Columbia 590 651 923 61 10% 602 756
New Hampshire 419 565 416 146 35% 436 848
Nebraska 345 530 274 185 54% 415 812
West Virginia 131 381 213 250 191% 204 735
Montana 75 305 285 230 306% 162 506
South Dakota 146 242 274 96 66% 180 362
North Dakota 112 217 285 105 94% 146 348
Maine 125 197 146 72 57% 143 324
Hawaii 31 151 107 120 388% 53 418
Vermont 58 78 125 20 35% 62 114
Alaska 26 74 102 48 186% 42 131
Wyoming 28 47 81 19 67% 34 70
Virgin Islands 9 24 233 15 171% 14 42
Guam 5 8 51 3 70% 5 16
Northern Mariana Islands 2 3 57 1 58% 2 5

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Europe Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-11-01). Our Europe estimates currently include 35 European countries (including the entire European Union).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Europe 189,847 209,605 353 19,758 10% 193,789 252,818
United Kingdom 46,651 50,883 753 4,232 9% 46,967 60,693
Italy 35,203 35,644 591 441 1% 35,230 37,084
France 30,327 31,080 464 753 2% 30,352 35,139
Spain 28,503 30,045 640 1,542 5% 28,548 36,694
Belgium 9,870 10,240 894 370 4% 9,901 11,886
Germany 9,201 10,020 121 819 9% 9,241 12,547
Romania 2,659 6,441 332 3,782 142% 3,963 11,127
Netherlands 6,178 6,389 370 211 3% 6,193 7,203
Sweden 5,763 6,049 591 286 5% 5,824 6,336
Ukraine 1,906 4,306 98 2,400 126% 2,648 7,379
Poland 1,800 3,126 82 1,326 74% 2,101 5,199
Switzerland 1,986 2,084 243 98 5% 1,999 2,487
Portugal 1,750 2,037 198 287 16% 1,763 2,687
Ireland 1,772 1,848 377 76 4% 1,784 2,052
Moldova 841 1,400 346 559 66% 1,050 2,066
Bulgaria 445 1,212 173 767 172% 696 2,366
Serbia 632 1,147 165 515 81% 814 1,774
Austria 721 841 95 120 17% 741 1,165
Belarus 585 810 86 225 38% 718 1,013
Denmark 617 697 120 80 13% 631 897
Hungary 602 696 71 94 16% 611 925
Czechia 389 568 53 179 46% 421 938
Finland 331 369 67 38 12% 340 444
Croatia 157 347 85 190 121% 211 650
Greece 211 316 29 105 50% 232 517
Norway 256 289 54 33 13% 262 378
Luxembourg 120 211 343 91 76% 143 395
Slovenia 126 195 94 69 55% 142 341
Lithuania 81 99 35 18 22% 86 126
Estonia 63 73 55 10 16% 69 86
Slovakia 31 51 9 20 64% 34 99
Latvia 32 41 21 9 27% 34 55
Cyprus 19 26 29 7 35% 21 34
Iceland 10 13 40 3 34% 10 21
Malta 9 11 23 2 27% 9 15

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Rest of World Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-11-01).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Rest of World 351,712 661,805 128 310,093 88% 463,496 972,166
Brazil 100,477 179,066 848 78,589 78% 122,555 254,738
India 43,379 123,856 91 80,477 186% 75,257 178,584
Mexico 52,006 92,809 727 40,803 78% 73,826 130,341
Colombia 12,540 32,160 639 19,620 156% 20,893 50,544
Peru 20,649 29,073 894 8,424 41% 22,504 40,131
Iran 18,264 28,006 338 9,742 53% 21,754 39,008
South Africa 10,210 25,711 439 15,501 152% 16,971 37,383
Russia 14,827 22,153 152 7,326 49% 17,076 33,271
Argentina 4,523 15,605 348 11,082 245% 8,609 25,230
Chile 10,011 14,073 743 4,062 41% 10,688 24,430
Indonesia 5,658 11,809 44 6,151 109% 7,692 20,901
Canada 9,024 9,460 253 436 5% 9,063 10,511
Bolivia 3,587 7,820 679 4,233 118% 5,081 12,840
Ecuador 5,916 7,358 424 1,442 24% 6,123 10,168
Pakistan 6,068 7,145 33 1,077 18% 6,252 8,538
Turkey 5,829 7,144 86 1,315 23% 5,932 10,396
Egypt 4,992 6,495 65 1,503 30% 5,152 8,820
Bangladesh 3,365 5,457 33 2,092 62% 4,111 8,774
China 4,681 5,075 4 394 8% 4,681 7,707
Philippines 2,209 4,982 46 2,773 126% 2,518 10,985
Saudi Arabia 3,130 4,941 144 1,811 58% 3,684 7,115
Honduras 1,476 3,050 313 1,574 107% 1,953 5,420
Panama 1,609 2,979 702 1,370 85% 2,079 4,601
Morocco 480 2,974 82 2,494 520% 974 7,387
Dominican Republic 1,289 2,545 237 1,256 97% 1,677 4,420
Algeria 1,293 2,300 53 1,007 78% 1,475 4,178
Japan 1,042 1,729 14 687 66% 1,059 4,443
Israel 593 1,461 172 868 146% 831 2,958
Nigeria 942 1,398 7 456 48% 1,054 2,361
Australia 295 1,256 50 961 326% 557 2,645
Kuwait 474 814 194 340 72% 519 1,638
United Arab Emirates 356 455 47 99 28% 363 738
South Korea 305 382 7 77 25% 305 627
Malaysia 125 149 5 24 19% 134 168
Cuba 88 116 10 28 32% 94 167