We present an intuitive model that builds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make COVID-19 infections and deaths projections for the US, all 50 US states, and more than 70 countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for over 99% of all global COVID-19 deaths.

Note that our infections estimate includes all infected individuals, not just those that took a COVID-19 test kit and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals do not get tested, and thus do not get reported as a positive case. As of mid-May, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US is ~5x higher than the reported cases.

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Recent Updates

State-by-state Reopenings: To date, we are one of the only models referenced by the CDC that factors in individual state re-openings. We update each US state’s reopening timeline according to The New York Times. Learn more about our social distancing assumptions here.

Current Projection for US - Updated Daily - Last Updated: Jun 3 (1am ET):

Current Total: 106,177 deaths | Projected Total: 187,171 deaths by Sep 1, 2020 (Range: 127-281k)
Currently Infected: 0.5% | Total Infected: 4.1%

US Deaths Likelihoods

Below, we present the most likely dates that the US will surpass certain deaths milestones, as well as the probabilities of the US surpassing those milestones by different time horizons. For example, we estimate a 76% chance that the US surpasses 125,000 deaths by July 1, with June 26 being the most likely date.

Last updated: Jun 3, 2020

US deaths surpass: Most likely date:
110,000 Jun 7, 2020
120,000 Jun 19, 2020
125,000 Jun 26, 2020
130,000 Jul 2, 2020
140,000 Jul 14, 2020
150,000 Jul 24, 2020


US deaths surpass: By Jun 15 By Jul 1 By Jul 15 By Aug 1 By Aug 15 By Sep 1
125,000 <1% 70% 91% 96% 98% 98%
150,000 <1% <1% 27% 56% 67% 74%
175,000 <1% <1% <1% 24% 41% 53%
200,000 <1% <1% <1% 5% 22% 35%
250,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 12%
300,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

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View Projections

Below you can find our projections for every US state and 63 countries (including all 27 European Union countries).

US

United States    
Alabama Kentucky Ohio
Alaska Louisiana Oklahoma
Arizona Maine Oregon
Arkansas Maryland Pennsylvania
California Massachusetts Puerto Rico
Colorado Michigan Rhode Island
Connecticut Minnesota South Carolina
Delaware Mississippi South Dakota
District Of Columbia Missouri Tennessee
Florida Montana Texas
Georgia Nebraska Utah
Guam Nevada Vermont
Hawaii New Hampshire Virgin Islands
Idaho New Jersey Virginia
Illinois New Mexico Washington
Indiana New York West Virginia
Iowa North Carolina Wisconsin
Kansas North Dakota Wyoming

US Counties

US Counties    
AZ - Maricopa FL - Orange NY - Nassau
CA - Alameda FL - Palm Beach NY - New York City
CA - Los Angeles IL - Cook NY - Suffolk
CA - Orange LA - Orleans NY - Westchester
CA - Riverside MA - Middlesex PA - Philadelphia
CA - Sacramento MA - Suffolk TX - Bexar
CA - San Bernardino MI - Wayne TX - Dallas
CA - San Diego NJ - Bergen TX - Harris
CA - Santa Clara NJ - Essex TX - Tarrant
FL - Broward NJ - Hudson WA - King
FL - Hillsborough NV - Clark  
FL - Miami-Dade NV - Washoe  

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Global Projections

Canada  
Alberta Ontario
British Columbia Quebec


Europe    
Austria Greece Poland
Belarus Hungary Portugal
Belgium Iceland Romania
Bulgaria Ireland Serbia
Croatia Italy Slovakia
Cyprus Latvia Slovenia
Czechia Lithuania Spain
Denmark Luxembourg Sweden
Estonia Malta Switzerland
Finland Moldova Ukraine
France Netherlands United Kingdom
Germany Norway  


Rest of World    
Algeria Ecuador Nigeria
Argentina Egypt Pakistan
Australia Honduras Panama
Bangladesh India Peru
Bolivia Indonesia Philippines
Brazil Iran Russia
Canada Israel Saudi Arabia
Chile Japan South Africa
China Kuwait South Korea
Colombia Malaysia Turkey
Cuba Mexico United Arab Emirates
Dominican Republic Morocco  

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US Summary

States are ordered by descending projected deaths (by September 1).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
United States 106,177 187,171 564 80,994 76% 127,420 280,129
New York 29,968 33,033 1,698 3,065 10% 30,652 38,033
New Jersey 11,771 14,285 1,608 2,514 21% 12,605 16,558
California 4,305 13,003 329 8,698 202% 5,979 24,074
Illinois 5,525 10,520 830 4,995 90% 7,344 14,223
Massachusetts 7,085 9,508 1,368 2,423 34% 7,935 12,498
Pennsylvania 5,667 9,418 736 3,751 66% 6,686 13,902
Florida 2,530 7,139 332 4,609 182% 3,456 12,273
Michigan 5,553 6,991 700 1,438 26% 6,002 9,477
Ohio 2,259 6,756 578 4,497 199% 3,581 10,704
Maryland 2,597 6,117 1,012 3,520 136% 3,457 9,798
Georgia 2,102 5,888 555 3,786 180% 3,078 9,889
Texas 1,716 5,297 183 3,581 209% 2,599 10,288
Connecticut 3,972 5,266 1,477 1,294 33% 4,301 6,866
Indiana 2,197 4,869 723 2,672 122% 2,852 8,088
Louisiana 2,835 4,235 911 1,400 49% 3,221 6,890
Virginia 1,407 4,158 487 2,751 196% 1,915 7,586
Minnesota 1,082 4,009 711 2,927 271% 1,849 6,362
Colorado 1,474 3,831 665 2,357 160% 2,024 6,515
North Carolina 961 3,455 329 2,494 260% 1,693 5,968
Arizona 943 3,017 414 2,074 220% 1,320 5,746
Missouri 786 2,616 426 1,830 233% 1,310 4,389
Mississippi 767 2,548 856 1,781 232% 1,128 4,167
Alabama 653 2,342 478 1,689 259% 1,191 3,859
South Carolina 501 1,793 348 1,292 258% 820 3,092
Rhode Island 732 1,723 1,626 991 135% 1,155 2,327
Washington 1,129 1,718 226 589 52% 1,233 2,995
Wisconsin 607 1,692 291 1,085 179% 902 3,036
Iowa 561 1,624 515 1,063 189% 1,072 2,362
Kentucky 442 1,124 252 682 154% 605 2,149
New Mexico 367 1,105 527 738 201% 578 1,721
Tennessee 381 1,029 151 648 170% 535 1,946
Delaware 373 896 920 523 140% 538 1,381
Nevada 417 891 289 474 114% 526 1,596
District of Columbia 470 764 1,083 294 63% 537 1,207
New Hampshire 256 741 545 485 189% 341 1,437
Oklahoma 339 579 146 240 71% 407 1,068
Nebraska 170 492 254 322 189% 303 785
Arkansas 136 458 152 322 237% 225 844
Utah 113 450 140 337 298% 198 834
Kansas 222 385 132 163 73% 251 877
Oregon 157 246 58 89 57% 177 423
Puerto Rico 138 200 63 62 45% 160 290
South Dakota 62 197 223 135 218% 102 420
North Dakota 65 185 243 120 185% 116 337
Maine 94 156 116 62 66% 117 270
West Virginia 78 133 74 55 71% 95 215
Idaho 83 106 59 23 28% 93 135
Vermont 55 65 104 10 18% 60 73
Wyoming 17 45 78 28 165% 32 75
Hawaii 17 21 15 4 24% 19 22
Montana 17 21 20 4 24% 18 24
Alaska 10 12 16 2 20% 11 13
Virgin Islands 6 8 76 2 33% 7 9
Guam 5 7 42 2 40% 6 8
Northern Mariana Islands 2 4 72 2 100% 3 5

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Europe Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-09-01). Our Europe estimates currently include 35 European countries (including the entire European Union).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Europe 170,029 202,248 341 32,219 19% 179,873 249,628
United Kingdom 39,452 48,188 714 8,736 22% 42,502 54,934
Italy 33,530 38,174 632 4,644 14% 34,768 43,914
France 28,943 31,020 463 2,077 7% 29,155 37,830
Spain 27,127 28,824 614 1,697 6% 27,319 34,261
Germany 8,563 10,336 125 1,773 21% 8,892 15,157
Belgium 9,505 10,200 890 695 7% 9,662 11,529
Sweden 4,468 7,765 759 3,297 74% 6,372 12,116
Netherlands 5,986 7,001 405 1,015 17% 6,226 8,667
Ukraine 733 3,267 74 2,534 346% 1,412 5,436
Poland 1,092 2,212 58 1,120 103% 1,355 3,903
Portugal 1,436 2,112 206 676 47% 1,667 3,104
Switzerland 1,920 2,060 240 140 7% 1,947 2,321
Romania 1,288 2,056 106 768 60% 1,614 3,105
Ireland 1,658 1,818 371 160 10% 1,685 2,391
Moldova 307 1,391 344 1,084 353% 691 2,063
Hungary 532 902 92 370 70% 614 1,645
Austria 669 743 84 74 11% 694 865
Belarus 243 687 73 444 183% 389 1,861
Denmark 580 683 118 103 18% 619 816
Bulgaria 144 522 75 378 262% 260 872
Finland 320 394 71 74 23% 339 537
Czechia 323 371 35 48 15% 349 413
Serbia 245 324 47 79 32% 278 423
Norway 237 265 49 28 12% 247 303
Greece 179 220 21 41 23% 200 256
Croatia 103 139 34 36 35% 115 194
Lithuania 71 136 49 65 92% 96 220
Luxembourg 110 124 202 14 13% 114 142
Slovenia 109 124 60 15 14% 113 145
Estonia 68 81 61 13 19% 78 86
Slovakia 28 32 6 4 14% 29 37
Latvia 24 31 16 7 29% 30 33
Cyprus 17 20 23 3 18% 19 21
Malta 9 15 30 6 67% 13 16
Iceland 10 11 32 1 10% 10 12

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Rest of World Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-09-01).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Rest of World 100,411 433,146 83 332,735 331% 214,445 691,016
Brazil 31,199 130,279 617 99,080 318% 64,884 245,586
Mexico 10,637 76,321 598 65,684 618% 36,521 102,522
India 5,829 57,757 42 51,928 891% 17,494 76,653
Russia 5,031 25,497 175 20,466 407% 9,710 42,914
Peru 4,634 22,030 678 17,396 375% 8,835 40,340
Canada 7,477 12,962 346 5,485 73% 8,465 22,206
Iran 7,942 12,083 146 4,141 52% 8,785 20,024
Chile 1,188 10,931 577 9,743 820% 9,168 12,960
Colombia 1,014 10,143 201 9,129 900% 6,114 13,257
South Africa 755 10,032 171 9,277 1229% 6,041 12,782
Pakistan 1,621 8,605 40 6,984 431% 3,598 15,485
Bangladesh 709 6,624 41 5,915 834% 3,600 8,789
Ecuador 3,438 6,118 352 2,680 78% 4,079 11,866
Egypt 1,052 6,093 61 5,041 479% 2,474 9,619
Turkey 4,585 5,502 66 917 20% 4,767 7,489
Indonesia 1,663 5,418 20 3,755 226% 2,842 9,400
China 4,638 4,645 3 7 0% 4,638 4,685
Saudi Arabia 549 4,095 119 3,546 646% 2,131 5,292
Bolivia 376 2,902 252 2,526 672% 1,665 4,398
Argentina 569 2,653 59 2,084 366% 1,289 4,101
Nigeria 314 1,877 9 1,563 498% 615 3,250
Philippines 966 1,809 17 843 87% 1,151 3,269
Kuwait 226 1,477 351 1,251 554% 746 2,158
Japan 902 1,429 11 527 58% 934 2,124
Honduras 225 1,114 114 889 395% 550 1,918
Algeria 667 1,076 25 409 61% 753 2,052
Panama 352 1,032 243 680 193% 512 1,941
Dominican Republic 515 869 81 354 69% 618 1,339
United Arab Emirates 269 512 52 243 90% 334 1,047
Israel 290 355 42 65 22% 314 464
South Korea 273 325 6 52 19% 280 434
Morocco 206 230 6 24 12% 216 260
Malaysia 115 145 5 30 26% 130 158
Australia 102 108 4 6 6% 103 125
Cuba 83 98 9 15 18% 89 109