We present an intuitive model that builds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make COVID-19 infections and deaths projections for the US, all 50 US states, and more than 70 countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for 99% of all global COVID-19 deaths.
Our infections estimate includes all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals in our estimates do not get tested, and thus do not get reported as a positive case. As of June, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US is ~5x higher than the reported cases.
On this page:
- View US projections
- US and Global Dashboard
- View US state-by-state projections
- View global projections
- Likelihoods of death milestones in US
- Summary of US projections
- Summary of Europe projections
- Summary of Rest of World projections
Recent Updates
- July 1: We updated our infections estimate to closer match the observed data. We now estimate there to be around 180k new infections per day in the US, 4-5x higher than the number of reported cases. Because we use only deaths in our model, we believe this estimate may still be an underestimate of the true prevalence.
- June 24: We have open-sourced our SEIR simulator. This is the underlying SEIR model without the machine learning layer to learn the parameters. If your system supports Python, you can generate your own simulations in under 5 minutes. No prior Python experience is needed.
- June 17: Our latest model update features a tighter confidence interval and improved modeling of reopenings. We incorporated a slower reopening, a greater lag between cases and deaths, and a lower proportion of severe cases. As a result, we now expect deaths to continue to decrease until July 4th weekend.
- June 16: We have open-sourced our code to evaluate COVID-19 models. The goal of this project is to evaluate various models’ historical point forecasts in a transparent, rigorous, and non-biased manner.
- June 11: We have extended our projections to October 1, 2020.
Current US Projections
Updated Daily - Last Updated: July 4 (2pm ET):
Current Total: 129,431 deaths | Projected Total: 187,300 deaths by Oct 1, 2020 (Range: 157-237k)
Currently Infected: 0.8% | Total Infected: 6.1%
COVID-19 Dashboard
To see more maps or for more details (including how we calculate the C19Pro Score), visit our Maps page.
US Deaths Likelihoods
Below, we present the most likely dates that the US will surpass certain deaths milestones, as well as the probabilities of the US surpassing those milestones by different time horizons.
Last updated: July 1, 2020
| US deaths surpass: | Most likely date: |
|---|---|
| 130,000 | Jul 6, 2020 |
| 140,000 | Jul 22, 2020 |
| 150,000 | Aug 7, 2020 |
| 175,000 | Sep 12, 2020 |
| US deaths surpass: | By Jul 15 | By Aug 1 | By Aug 15 | By Sep 1 | By Sep 15 | By Oct 1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 150,000 | <1% | 16% | 68% | 97% | 99% | 99% |
| 175,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 22% | 41% | 53% |
| 200,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 10% | 20% |
| 225,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 7% |
| 250,000 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
View Projections
Below you can find our projections for every US state and 63 countries (including all 27 European Union countries).
US
US Counties
Global Projections
| Canada | |
|---|---|
| Alberta | Ontario |
| British Columbia | Quebec |
US Summary
States are ordered by descending projected deaths (by October 1).
| Current Deaths | Projected Deaths - Mean | Projected Deaths / 1M | Additional Deaths - Mean | Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) | Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile | Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 129,431 | 187,318 | 565 | 57,887 | 45% | 157,126 | 236,513 |
| New York | 32,137 | 33,356 | 1,715 | 1,219 | 4% | 32,189 | 37,912 |
| New Jersey | 15,164 | 16,374 | 1,843 | 1,210 | 8% | 15,313 | 17,877 |
| California | 6,315 | 13,132 | 332 | 6,817 | 108% | 8,696 | 20,905 |
| Illinois | 7,005 | 9,779 | 772 | 2,774 | 40% | 7,685 | 13,802 |
| Massachusetts | 8,149 | 9,406 | 1,353 | 1,257 | 15% | 8,374 | 11,536 |
| Florida | 3,684 | 8,949 | 417 | 5,265 | 143% | 5,040 | 16,935 |
| Pennsylvania | 6,746 | 8,806 | 688 | 2,060 | 31% | 6,997 | 13,253 |
| Texas | 2,592 | 7,721 | 266 | 5,129 | 198% | 3,815 | 16,017 |
| Michigan | 6,215 | 7,379 | 739 | 1,164 | 19% | 6,297 | 10,497 |
| Georgia | 2,857 | 6,201 | 584 | 3,344 | 117% | 3,658 | 10,765 |
| Arizona | 1,798 | 5,589 | 768 | 3,791 | 211% | 3,608 | 8,454 |
| Louisiana | 3,278 | 4,791 | 1,031 | 1,513 | 46% | 3,484 | 6,696 |
| Ohio | 2,903 | 4,774 | 408 | 1,871 | 64% | 3,194 | 8,585 |
| Connecticut | 4,335 | 4,722 | 1,324 | 387 | 9% | 4,385 | 5,457 |
| Maryland | 3,223 | 4,458 | 737 | 1,235 | 38% | 3,445 | 6,621 |
| Indiana | 2,681 | 3,785 | 562 | 1,104 | 41% | 2,805 | 6,738 |
| North Carolina | 1,419 | 3,018 | 288 | 1,599 | 113% | 1,780 | 6,381 |
| Virginia | 1,845 | 2,983 | 349 | 1,138 | 62% | 1,966 | 5,429 |
| Alabama | 1,006 | 2,900 | 591 | 1,894 | 188% | 1,452 | 4,839 |
| Minnesota | 1,503 | 2,481 | 440 | 978 | 65% | 1,665 | 4,312 |
| South Carolina | 793 | 2,461 | 478 | 1,668 | 210% | 1,320 | 4,438 |
| Colorado | 1,701 | 2,356 | 409 | 655 | 39% | 1,765 | 4,206 |
| Mississippi | 1,103 | 2,247 | 755 | 1,144 | 104% | 1,349 | 3,696 |
| Washington | 1,352 | 2,088 | 274 | 736 | 54% | 1,500 | 3,489 |
| Tennessee | 633 | 2,079 | 304 | 1,446 | 228% | 1,005 | 3,775 |
| Missouri | 1,047 | 1,648 | 269 | 601 | 57% | 1,138 | 3,229 |
| Wisconsin | 796 | 1,468 | 252 | 672 | 84% | 925 | 2,923 |
| Rhode Island | 960 | 1,324 | 1,250 | 364 | 38% | 1,037 | 1,837 |
| Nevada | 528 | 1,275 | 414 | 747 | 141% | 697 | 2,191 |
| Kentucky | 585 | 1,097 | 246 | 512 | 88% | 662 | 2,208 |
| Arkansas | 281 | 972 | 322 | 691 | 246% | 421 | 1,955 |
| Iowa | 721 | 942 | 299 | 221 | 31% | 754 | 1,500 |
| New Mexico | 511 | 875 | 417 | 364 | 71% | 575 | 1,625 |
| Oklahoma | 398 | 696 | 176 | 298 | 75% | 430 | 1,625 |
| District of Columbia | 555 | 685 | 971 | 130 | 23% | 578 | 968 |
| Delaware | 512 | 667 | 685 | 155 | 30% | 533 | 1,077 |
| New Hampshire | 376 | 635 | 467 | 259 | 69% | 416 | 1,157 |
| Oregon | 209 | 528 | 125 | 319 | 153% | 256 | 1,118 |
| Nebraska | 284 | 525 | 271 | 241 | 85% | 347 | 854 |
| Utah | 181 | 506 | 158 | 325 | 180% | 231 | 1,352 |
| Kansas | 282 | 433 | 149 | 151 | 54% | 299 | 909 |
| Puerto Rico | 154 | 213 | 67 | 59 | 38% | 162 | 396 |
| Idaho | 93 | 196 | 110 | 103 | 111% | 111 | 344 |
| South Dakota | 97 | 181 | 205 | 84 | 87% | 114 | 305 |
| Maine | 105 | 147 | 109 | 42 | 40% | 112 | 257 |
| West Virginia | 93 | 119 | 66 | 26 | 28% | 98 | 177 |
| North Dakota | 80 | 108 | 142 | 28 | 35% | 89 | 151 |
| Vermont | 56 | 77 | 123 | 21 | 38% | 58 | 118 |
| Montana | 23 | 51 | 48 | 28 | 122% | 25 | 111 |
| Alaska | 15 | 37 | 51 | 22 | 147% | 16 | 103 |
| Wyoming | 20 | 30 | 52 | 10 | 50% | 23 | 44 |
| Hawaii | 19 | 26 | 18 | 7 | 37% | 20 | 39 |
| Virgin Islands | 6 | 11 | 105 | 5 | 83% | 6 | 18 |
| Guam | 5 | 7 | 42 | 2 | 40% | 5 | 15 |
| Northern Mariana Islands | 2 | 3 | 54 | 1 | 50% | 2 | 7 |
Europe Summary
Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-10-01). Our Europe estimates currently include 35 European countries (including the entire European Union).
| Current Deaths | Projected Deaths - Mean | Projected Deaths / 1M | Additional Deaths - Mean | Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) | Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile | Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Europe | 182,524 | 202,284 | 341 | 19,760 | 11% | 187,126 | 230,627 |
| United Kingdom | 44,216 | 48,721 | 721 | 4,505 | 10% | 45,219 | 52,196 |
| Italy | 34,833 | 36,458 | 604 | 1,625 | 5% | 35,069 | 40,193 |
| France | 29,896 | 30,883 | 461 | 987 | 3% | 29,926 | 35,454 |
| Spain | 28,385 | 29,213 | 622 | 828 | 3% | 28,433 | 31,181 |
| Germany | 9,010 | 10,404 | 125 | 1,394 | 15% | 9,082 | 13,454 |
| Belgium | 9,765 | 10,029 | 875 | 264 | 3% | 9,788 | 10,754 |
| Netherlands | 6,132 | 6,455 | 374 | 323 | 5% | 6,168 | 7,078 |
| Sweden | 5,420 | 6,343 | 620 | 923 | 17% | 5,802 | 7,570 |
| Romania | 1,708 | 3,846 | 198 | 2,138 | 125% | 2,445 | 4,970 |
| Ukraine | 1,227 | 3,185 | 72 | 1,958 | 160% | 1,933 | 4,974 |
| Poland | 1,507 | 3,068 | 81 | 1,561 | 104% | 1,901 | 4,502 |
| Switzerland | 1,965 | 2,052 | 239 | 87 | 4% | 1,976 | 2,381 |
| Portugal | 1,598 | 1,990 | 194 | 392 | 25% | 1,666 | 2,609 |
| Ireland | 1,740 | 1,823 | 372 | 83 | 5% | 1,747 | 2,198 |
| Moldova | 572 | 1,447 | 358 | 875 | 153% | 983 | 2,072 |
| Belarus | 412 | 870 | 92 | 458 | 111% | 555 | 1,631 |
| Austria | 705 | 805 | 91 | 100 | 14% | 720 | 957 |
| Hungary | 588 | 771 | 79 | 183 | 31% | 612 | 1,103 |
| Denmark | 606 | 670 | 115 | 64 | 11% | 620 | 824 |
| Bulgaria | 239 | 655 | 94 | 416 | 174% | 365 | 999 |
| Serbia | 298 | 516 | 74 | 218 | 73% | 344 | 802 |
| Czechia | 353 | 461 | 43 | 108 | 31% | 363 | 597 |
| Finland | 329 | 368 | 67 | 39 | 12% | 335 | 479 |
| Norway | 251 | 272 | 51 | 21 | 8% | 257 | 311 |
| Greece | 192 | 221 | 21 | 29 | 15% | 203 | 267 |
| Croatia | 112 | 180 | 44 | 68 | 61% | 125 | 245 |
| Slovenia | 111 | 122 | 59 | 11 | 10% | 113 | 151 |
| Luxembourg | 110 | 118 | 192 | 8 | 7% | 112 | 136 |
| Lithuania | 79 | 114 | 41 | 35 | 44% | 88 | 174 |
| Estonia | 69 | 88 | 66 | 19 | 28% | 75 | 149 |
| Latvia | 30 | 46 | 24 | 16 | 53% | 32 | 78 |
| Slovakia | 28 | 35 | 6 | 7 | 25% | 28 | 58 |
| Cyprus | 19 | 29 | 33 | 10 | 53% | 20 | 46 |
| Malta | 9 | 13 | 26 | 4 | 44% | 11 | 15 |
| Iceland | 10 | 13 | 38 | 3 | 30% | 10 | 19 |
Rest of World Summary
Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-10-01).
| Current Deaths | Projected Deaths - Mean | Projected Deaths / 1M | Additional Deaths - Mean | Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) | Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile | Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rest of World | 202,858 | 527,551 | 102 | 324,693 | 160% | 348,534 | 811,551 |
| Brazil | 61,884 | 132,372 | 627 | 70,488 | 114% | 103,204 | 198,751 |
| India | 18,655 | 91,820 | 67 | 73,165 | 392% | 39,431 | 186,508 |
| Mexico | 29,843 | 80,613 | 632 | 50,770 | 170% | 60,274 | 93,645 |
| Peru | 10,226 | 22,413 | 689 | 12,187 | 119% | 15,972 | 31,714 |
| Colombia | 3,851 | 21,458 | 426 | 17,607 | 457% | 13,076 | 28,618 |
| Iran | 11,260 | 20,459 | 247 | 9,199 | 82% | 16,741 | 26,208 |
| Russia | 9,844 | 19,406 | 133 | 9,562 | 97% | 13,048 | 31,292 |
| South Africa | 2,952 | 14,537 | 248 | 11,585 | 392% | 7,836 | 20,651 |
| Egypt | 3,201 | 13,254 | 132 | 10,053 | 314% | 7,751 | 20,820 |
| Chile | 6,051 | 12,942 | 683 | 6,891 | 114% | 8,012 | 18,856 |
| Pakistan | 4,551 | 12,447 | 57 | 7,896 | 174% | 7,812 | 20,075 |
| Canada | 8,722 | 10,192 | 272 | 1,470 | 17% | 8,961 | 13,021 |
| Indonesia | 3,036 | 9,123 | 34 | 6,087 | 200% | 4,956 | 14,906 |
| Bangladesh | 1,968 | 8,263 | 51 | 6,295 | 320% | 4,414 | 13,942 |
| Turkey | 5,186 | 7,754 | 93 | 2,568 | 50% | 5,497 | 12,709 |
| Argentina | 1,437 | 7,466 | 167 | 6,029 | 420% | 3,630 | 12,699 |
| Bolivia | 1,320 | 7,038 | 611 | 5,718 | 433% | 3,448 | 10,727 |
| Ecuador | 4,700 | 6,617 | 381 | 1,917 | 41% | 4,991 | 11,030 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1,802 | 5,257 | 153 | 3,455 | 192% | 3,241 | 7,187 |
| China | 4,641 | 4,647 | 3 | 6 | 0% | 4,641 | 4,678 |
| Honduras | 605 | 3,356 | 344 | 2,751 | 455% | 2,253 | 5,072 |
| Dominican Republic | 775 | 2,911 | 271 | 2,136 | 276% | 1,080 | 5,587 |
| Philippines | 1,280 | 2,672 | 25 | 1,392 | 109% | 1,427 | 4,994 |
| Panama | 698 | 2,666 | 628 | 1,968 | 282% | 1,741 | 3,664 |
| Algeria | 937 | 2,118 | 49 | 1,181 | 126% | 1,284 | 4,206 |
| Nigeria | 628 | 1,965 | 10 | 1,337 | 213% | 902 | 4,075 |
| Japan | 977 | 1,212 | 10 | 235 | 24% | 981 | 1,756 |
| Kuwait | 360 | 582 | 138 | 222 | 62% | 403 | 984 |
| Israel | 326 | 443 | 52 | 117 | 36% | 340 | 701 |
| United Arab Emirates | 318 | 430 | 44 | 112 | 35% | 337 | 740 |
| South Korea | 283 | 356 | 7 | 73 | 26% | 284 | 567 |
| Morocco | 230 | 273 | 7 | 43 | 19% | 237 | 411 |
| Malaysia | 121 | 270 | 8 | 149 | 123% | 135 | 466 |
| Australia | 104 | 116 | 5 | 12 | 12% | 104 | 154 |
| Cuba | 86 | 103 | 9 | 17 | 20% | 90 | 137 |