We present an intuitive COVID-19 model that adds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make projections for infections and deaths for the US and 70 other countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for more than 95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths.

Our infections estimates include all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals in our estimates do not get tested, and thus do not get reported as a positive case. As of August, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US is roughly 4-8x higher than the reported cases. See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject. To get a sense of the number of individuals that are actively infectious, we recommend dividing the “currently infected” estimate by 2-4.

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Current US Projections

Updated Daily - Last Updated: September 27 (4am ET):

Current Total: 204,487 deaths | Projected Total: 227,800 deaths by Nov 1, 2020 (Range: 218-243k)
Currently Infected: 1.0% (1 in 100) | Total Infected: 16.0% (1 in 6)

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COVID-19 Dashboard

To see more maps or for more details (including how we calculate the C19Pro Score), visit our Maps page.

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US Deaths Likelihoods

Below, we present the most likely dates that the US will surpass certain deaths milestones, as well as the probabilities of the US surpassing those milestones by different time horizons.

Last updated: September 26, 2020

US deaths surpass: By Oct 1 By Oct 15 By Nov 1
225,000 <1% 1% 56%
250,000 <1% <1% <1%
275,000 <1% <1% <1%
300,000 <1% <1% <1%

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View Projections

Below you can find our projections for every US state and 70 countries (including all 27 European Union countries).

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US

United States    
Alabama Kentucky Ohio
Alaska Louisiana Oklahoma
Arizona Maine Oregon
Arkansas Maryland Pennsylvania
California Massachusetts Puerto Rico
Colorado Michigan Rhode Island
Connecticut Minnesota South Carolina
Delaware Mississippi South Dakota
District Of Columbia Missouri Tennessee
Florida Montana Texas
Georgia Nebraska Utah
Guam Nevada Vermont
Hawaii New Hampshire Virgin Islands
Idaho New Jersey Virginia
Illinois New Mexico Washington
Indiana New York West Virginia
Iowa North Carolina Wisconsin
Kansas North Dakota Wyoming

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US Counties

US Counties    
AZ - Maricopa FL - Orange NY - Nassau
CA - Alameda FL - Palm Beach NY - New York City
CA - Los Angeles IL - Cook NY - Suffolk
CA - Orange LA - Orleans NY - Westchester
CA - Riverside MA - Middlesex PA - Philadelphia
CA - Sacramento MA - Suffolk TX - Bexar
CA - San Bernardino MI - Wayne TX - Dallas
CA - San Diego NJ - Bergen TX - Harris
CA - Santa Clara NJ - Essex TX - Tarrant
FL - Broward NJ - Hudson WA - King
FL - Hillsborough NV - Clark  
FL - Miami-Dade NV - Washoe  

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Global Projections

Canada  
Alberta Ontario
British Columbia Quebec

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Europe    
Austria Greece Poland
Belarus Hungary Portugal
Belgium Iceland Romania
Bulgaria Ireland Serbia
Croatia Italy Slovakia
Cyprus Latvia Slovenia
Czechia Lithuania Spain
Denmark Luxembourg Sweden
Estonia Malta Switzerland
Finland Moldova Ukraine
France Netherlands United Kingdom
Germany Norway  

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Rest of World    
Algeria Ecuador Nigeria
Argentina Egypt Pakistan
Australia Honduras Panama
Bangladesh India Peru
Bolivia Indonesia Philippines
Brazil Iran Russia
Canada Israel Saudi Arabia
Chile Japan South Africa
China Kuwait South Korea
Colombia Malaysia Turkey
Cuba Mexico United Arab Emirates
Dominican Republic Morocco  

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US Summary

States are ordered by descending projected deaths (by November 1).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
United States 204,487 227,780 686 23,293 70 11% 218,205 242,095
New York 33,125 33,517 1,723 392 20 1% 33,139 35,328
Texas 15,707 18,193 627 2,486 86 16% 17,021 19,907
California 15,583 18,126 459 2,543 64 16% 16,433 20,924
Florida 14,022 17,016 792 2,994 139 21% 15,276 19,932
New Jersey 16,103 16,304 1,836 201 23 1% 16,111 16,928
Massachusetts 9,391 9,703 1,396 312 45 3% 9,413 10,293
Illinois 8,832 9,532 752 700 55 8% 8,959 10,529
Pennsylvania 8,083 8,914 696 831 65 10% 8,127 10,113
Georgia 6,914 8,226 775 1,312 124 19% 7,483 9,425
Michigan 7,044 7,383 739 339 34 5% 7,087 7,896
Arizona 5,622 6,109 839 487 67 9% 5,757 6,716
Louisiana 5,444 5,906 1,271 462 99 8% 5,621 6,404
Ohio 4,740 5,491 470 751 64 16% 4,927 6,441
Connecticut 4,501 4,587 1,287 86 24 2% 4,509 4,831
North Carolina 3,440 4,278 408 838 80 24% 3,808 4,982
Maryland 3,925 4,130 683 205 34 5% 3,940 4,500
South Carolina 3,323 3,935 764 612 119 18% 3,599 4,461
Indiana 3,577 3,920 582 343 51 10% 3,603 4,519
Virginia 3,142 3,781 443 639 75 20% 3,327 4,488
Mississippi 2,911 3,311 1,112 400 134 14% 3,070 3,695
Tennessee 2,374 3,019 442 645 94 27% 2,683 3,494
Missouri 2,054 2,868 467 814 133 40% 2,391 3,578
Alabama 2,501 2,834 578 333 68 13% 2,627 3,167
Minnesota 2,056 2,385 423 329 58 16% 2,102 2,863
Washington 2,100 2,377 312 277 36 13% 2,143 2,814
Colorado 2,040 2,199 382 159 28 8% 2,050 2,504
Nevada 1,582 1,819 590 237 77 15% 1,662 2,097
Arkansas 1,285 1,714 568 429 142 33% 1,488 2,083
Wisconsin 1,281 1,607 276 326 56 25% 1,404 1,941
Iowa 1,314 1,571 498 257 81 20% 1,408 1,829
Kentucky 1,154 1,438 322 284 64 25% 1,262 1,698
Oklahoma 1,004 1,327 335 323 82 32% 1,151 1,634
Rhode Island 1,107 1,171 1,106 64 61 6% 1,113 1,306
New Mexico 870 1,010 482 140 67 16% 917 1,172
Puerto Rico 642 898 281 256 80 40% 773 1,096
Kansas 635 835 287 200 69 31% 716 1,009
Oregon 542 675 160 133 32 25% 594 810
Delaware 633 664 682 31 32 5% 637 721
District of Columbia 624 641 908 17 23 3% 627 672
Nebraska 469 588 304 119 62 25% 495 737
Idaho 460 565 316 105 59 23% 513 634
Utah 448 547 171 99 31 22% 484 636
West Virginia 337 502 280 165 92 49% 418 634
New Hampshire 439 459 337 20 15 4% 440 516
North Dakota 227 413 542 186 244 82% 328 551
South Dakota 218 332 375 114 129 52% 247 476
Montana 171 298 279 127 119 74% 233 407
Hawaii 131 209 148 78 55 60% 164 299
Maine 140 154 115 14 11 10% 143 178
Alaska 52 77 105 25 34 48% 65 98
Guam 39 69 418 30 183 78% 53 96
Wyoming 50 63 109 13 22 26% 56 74
Vermont 58 61 98 3 5 5% 58 69
Virgin Islands 19 24 231 5 50 28% 21 29
Northern Mariana Islands 2 3 46 1 9 26% 2 4

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Europe Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-11-01). Our Europe estimates currently include 35 European countries (including the entire European Union).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Europe 197,629 221,937 374 24,308 41 12% 201,962 283,196
United Kingdom 42,060 45,360 672 3,300 49 8% 42,151 56,731
Spain 31,232 36,892 786 5,660 121 18% 31,952 49,723
Italy 35,818 36,776 609 958 16 3% 35,839 40,191
France 31,675 35,281 526 3,606 54 11% 31,723 52,938
Belgium 9,974 10,473 914 499 44 5% 9,999 12,449
Germany 9,459 9,984 120 525 6 6% 9,476 11,769
Netherlands 6,415 7,472 432 1,057 61 16% 6,468 10,064
Ukraine 3,988 6,519 148 2,531 58 63% 5,090 8,656
Romania 4,687 6,219 320 1,532 79 33% 5,393 7,644
Sweden 5,880 6,013 588 133 13 2% 5,893 6,362
Poland 2,424 3,300 87 876 23 36% 2,695 4,333
Portugal 1,944 2,247 219 303 29 16% 2,014 2,622
Switzerland 2,064 2,215 258 151 18 7% 2,097 2,482
Ireland 1,802 1,922 392 120 24 7% 1,810 2,386
Moldova 1,279 1,683 416 404 100 32% 1,439 2,068
Czechia 591 1,419 133 828 78 140% 931 2,232
Hungary 730 1,097 112 367 38 50% 902 1,407
Belarus 813 1,050 111 237 25 29% 883 1,386
Bulgaria 789 969 138 180 26 23% 877 1,123
Austria 787 964 109 177 20 23% 822 1,298
Serbia 746 799 115 53 8 7% 759 877
Denmark 648 792 136 144 25 22% 671 1,190
Greece 376 696 65 320 30 85% 500 1,027
Finland 343 379 69 36 6 10% 355 431
Croatia 269 368 90 99 24 37% 303 516
Norway 270 305 57 35 7 13% 282 344
Slovenia 146 188 90 42 20 29% 162 234
Luxembourg 124 136 221 12 19 9% 127 154
Lithuania 89 108 39 19 7 21% 96 126
Estonia 64 79 60 15 11 24% 71 94
Slovakia 44 78 14 34 6 78% 60 110
Malta 31 73 149 42 86 137% 50 132
Latvia 36 44 23 8 4 22% 39 51
Cyprus 22 25 29 3 4 15% 23 30
Iceland 10 13 37 3 8 26% 10 16

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Rest of World Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-11-01).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Rest of World 554,273 679,809 131 125,536 24 23% 614,214 784,207
Brazil 141,406 161,329 764 19,923 94 14% 152,174 176,541
India 93,379 134,607 99 41,228 30 44% 111,032 157,266
Mexico 76,243 89,050 698 12,807 100 17% 84,518 96,688
Peru 32,037 34,792 1,070 2,755 85 9% 33,276 38,101
Iran 25,394 30,948 373 5,554 67 22% 28,008 35,413
Colombia 25,296 29,838 593 4,542 90 18% 27,847 33,852
Argentina 15,543 26,136 584 10,593 237 68% 21,536 34,380
Russia 20,140 25,569 175 5,429 37 27% 23,188 34,583
South Africa 16,376 17,969 307 1,593 27 10% 16,862 20,200
Indonesia 10,308 14,898 55 4,590 17 45% 13,113 19,552
Chile 12,591 14,517 766 1,926 102 15% 12,789 18,840
Ecuador 11,273 12,349 711 1,076 62 10% 11,359 14,157
Turkey 7,929 10,533 126 2,604 31 33% 8,381 14,165
Canada 9,313 9,755 261 442 12 5% 9,347 11,172
Bolivia 7,828 8,754 760 926 80 12% 8,209 9,358
Philippines 5,284 7,520 70 2,236 21 42% 6,215 9,497
Pakistan 6,457 6,741 31 284 1 4% 6,505 7,207
Egypt 5,869 6,534 65 665 7 11% 5,945 7,932
Bangladesh 5,129 6,005 37 876 5 17% 5,456 7,015
Saudi Arabia 4,655 5,322 155 667 19 14% 4,879 6,064
China 4,739 4,788 3 49 0 1% 4,739 5,186
Morocco 2,041 3,472 95 1,431 39 70% 2,625 4,681
Panama 2,323 2,825 665 502 118 22% 2,667 3,132
Honduras 2,288 2,787 286 499 51 22% 2,428 3,336
Dominican Republic 2,093 2,549 237 456 42 22% 2,259 3,060
Israel 1,441 2,292 269 851 100 59% 1,746 3,431
Algeria 1,711 1,925 45 214 5 13% 1,755 2,242
Japan 1,547 1,788 14 241 2 16% 1,613 2,074
Nigeria 1,106 1,209 6 103 1 9% 1,132 1,367
Australia 872 965 38 93 4 11% 902 1,063
Kuwait 597 733 174 136 32 23% 614 914
South Korea 401 509 10 108 2 27% 415 699
United Arab Emirates 411 507 52 96 10 23% 416 686
Cuba 120 155 14 35 3 29% 129 204
Malaysia 133 141 4 8 0 6% 135 149