We present an intuitive model that uses machine learning techniques to make COVID-19 projections for infections and deaths for all 50 US states and 40 countries.

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State-by-state Reopenings: To date, we are the few models referenced by the CDC that factors in individual state re-openings. We update each US state’s reopening timeline according to The New York Times. Learn more about our social distancing assumptions here.

Current Projection for US - Updated Daily - Last Updated: May 8 (2am ET):

Current Total: 75,659 deaths | Projected Total: 182,844 deaths by Aug 4, 2020 (Range: 110-304k)
Currently Infected: 0.6% | Total Infected: 3.0%

US Deaths Likelihoods

Below, we present the most likely dates that the US will surpass certain deaths milestones, as well as the probabilities of the US surpassing those milestones by several different time periods. For example, we estimate a 91% chance that the US surpasses 100,000 deaths by June 1, with May 23 being the most likely date.

Last updated: May 8, 2020

US deaths surpass: Most likely date:
80,000 May 10, 2020
90,000 May 16, 2020
100,000 May 23, 2020


US deaths surpass: By May 15 By Jun 1 By Jun 15 By Jul 1 By Jul 15 By Aug 1
80,000 99% >99% >99% >99% >99% >99%
90,000 37% 99% 99% 99% >99% >99%
100,000 <1% 91% 99% 99% 99% 99%
125,000 <1% 10% 54% 76% 84% 88%
150,000 <1% <1% 11% 39% 57% 67%
175,000 <1% <1% <1% 15% 32% 47%
200,000 <1% <1% <1% 4% 16% 30%
250,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% 2% 11%
300,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 2%

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View Projections

Below you can find our projections for every US state and 40 countries (including all 27 EU countries).

US

United States    
Alabama Kentucky Ohio
Alaska Louisiana Oklahoma
Arizona Maine Oregon
Arkansas Maryland Pennsylvania
California Massachusetts Puerto Rico
Colorado Michigan Rhode Island
Connecticut Minnesota South Carolina
Delaware Mississippi South Dakota
District Of Columbia Missouri Tennessee
Florida Montana Texas
Georgia Nebraska Utah
Guam Nevada Vermont
Hawaii New Hampshire Virgin Islands
Idaho New Jersey Virginia
Illinois New Mexico Washington
Indiana New York West Virginia
Iowa North Carolina Wisconsin
Kansas North Dakota Wyoming

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Global Projections

Europe    
Austria Germany Norway
Belgium Greece Poland
Bulgaria Hungary Portugal
Croatia Ireland Romania
Cyprus Italy Slovakia
Czechia Latvia Slovenia
Denmark Lithuania Spain
Estonia Luxembourg Sweden
Finland Malta Switzerland
France Netherlands United Kingdom


Other Countries    
Brazil Indonesia Russia
Canada Iran Turkey
China Mexico  
India Philippines  

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US Summary

States are ordered by descending projected deaths (by August 4).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
United States 75,659 182,844 142% 110,750 303,974
New York 26,144 36,871 41% 31,225 52,223
New Jersey 8,807 17,974 104% 11,954 24,306
Pennsylvania 3,589 14,180 295% 7,829 20,957
Illinois 3,111 11,098 257% 5,932 16,151
Massachusetts 4,552 10,070 121% 6,885 17,372
Indiana 1,414 7,640 440% 3,086 13,650
Michigan 4,345 7,603 75% 5,611 12,373
California 2,535 7,085 179% 3,686 14,020
Connecticut 2,797 5,468 95% 3,678 9,184
Florida 1,600 5,147 222% 2,197 10,405
Ohio 1,271 5,104 302% 2,358 8,527
Georgia 1,355 4,528 234% 2,090 8,782
Maryland 1,503 4,325 188% 2,201 8,223
Texas 985 4,183 325% 1,706 8,964
Louisiana 2,208 4,004 81% 2,872 6,094
Virginia 769 3,820 397% 1,335 8,042
Colorado 944 3,426 263% 1,467 6,598
Minnesota 508 3,252 540% 1,019 6,775
Arizona 450 3,055 579% 1,246 6,086
Mississippi 396 2,396 505% 1,044 4,622
Iowa 231 2,153 832% 1,018 3,809
Alabama 369 2,043 454% 931 3,661
Missouri 449 1,893 322% 799 3,720
North Carolina 513 1,583 209% 807 3,584
South Carolina 316 1,444 357% 662 2,669
Washington 891 1,429 60% 1,053 2,621
Rhode Island 388 1,155 198% 702 1,711
Nevada 297 932 214% 517 1,767
Kentucky 294 882 200% 453 1,822
District of Columbia 285 837 194% 439 1,405
Delaware 202 770 281% 354 1,359
Wisconsin 374 728 95% 512 1,157
New Mexico 172 718 317% 294 1,432
Oklahoma 260 657 153% 401 1,186
Kansas 165 607 268% 274 1,616
New Hampshire 114 602 428% 293 1,050
Nebraska 91 549 503% 226 1,290
Tennessee 238 528 122% 358 878
Arkansas 87 374 330% 214 661
Utah 61 305 400% 117 703
Oregon 121 270 123% 164 523
South Dakota 31 201 548% 77 441
Puerto Rico 102 183 79% 136 277
West Virginia 51 162 218% 90 342
Maine 62 158 155% 110 254
Idaho 67 116 73% 87 153
North Dakota 31 107 245% 60 224
Vermont 53 93 75% 76 120
Hawaii 17 36 112% 25 44
Montana 16 30 88% 23 44
Wyoming 7 19 171% 15 24
Alaska 10 16 60% 14 19
Guam 5 15 200% 11 28
Virgin Islands 4 11 175% 10 13

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Europe Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-08-04).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Europe 145,755 217,543 49% 168,612 338,597
United Kingdom 30,689 50,829 66% 36,387 85,896
Italy 29,958 40,396 35% 34,232 53,159
France 25,990 33,301 28% 27,685 50,833
Spain 26,070 32,257 24% 28,493 40,183
Germany 7,392 14,155 91% 9,006 26,513
Belgium 8,415 11,484 36% 9,519 17,400
Netherlands 5,306 8,549 61% 6,215 13,571
Sweden 3,040 7,981 163% 5,212 17,377
Romania 888 3,026 241% 1,775 5,186
Ireland 1,403 2,771 98% 1,698 5,978
Poland 755 2,508 232% 1,079 5,617
Switzerland 1,810 2,374 31% 2,005 3,370
Portugal 1,105 2,193 98% 1,551 3,401
Hungary 383 951 148% 489 2,186
Austria 609 874 44% 695 1,214
Denmark 514 830 61% 634 1,233
Finland 255 821 222% 339 1,942
Czechia 270 427 58% 363 533
Norway 217 336 55% 262 533
Bulgaria 84 328 290% 156 674
Croatia 86 324 277% 156 730
Greece 148 222 50% 180 293
Luxembourg 100 147 47% 119 190
Slovenia 99 144 45% 115 196
Estonia 56 103 84% 81 122
Lithuania 49 84 71% 65 101
Latvia 18 48 167% 39 57
Slovakia 26 45 73% 33 68
Cyprus 15 24 60% 19 28
Malta 5 11 120% 10 13

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Global Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-08-04).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Brazil 9,190 73,325 698% 22,072 174,325
Canada 4,541 14,946 229% 7,176 23,905
Mexico 2,961 13,048 341% 6,502 20,820
Iran 6,486 9,161 41% 7,397 12,035
Russia 1,625 8,479 422% 3,914 19,370
India 1,889 7,692 307% 3,740 14,358
Turkey 3,641 5,499 51% 4,392 9,207
China 4,637 4,693 1% 4,655 4,763
Indonesia 930 1,973 112% 1,152 3,714
Philippines 685 1,645 140% 851 2,806