We present an intuitive model that builds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make COVID-19 infections and deaths projections for the US, all 50 US states, and more than 70 countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for 99% of all global COVID-19 deaths.

Our infections estimate includes all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals in our estimates do not get tested, and thus do not get reported as a positive case. As of June, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US is ~5x higher than the reported cases.

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Recent Updates

Current US Projections

Updated Daily - Last Updated: July 4 (2pm ET):

Current Total: 129,431 deaths | Projected Total: 187,300 deaths by Oct 1, 2020 (Range: 157-237k)
Currently Infected: 0.8% | Total Infected: 6.1%

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COVID-19 Dashboard

To see more maps or for more details (including how we calculate the C19Pro Score), visit our Maps page.

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US Deaths Likelihoods

Below, we present the most likely dates that the US will surpass certain deaths milestones, as well as the probabilities of the US surpassing those milestones by different time horizons.

Last updated: July 1, 2020

US deaths surpass: Most likely date:
130,000 Jul 6, 2020
140,000 Jul 22, 2020
150,000 Aug 7, 2020
175,000 Sep 12, 2020


US deaths surpass: By Jul 15 By Aug 1 By Aug 15 By Sep 1 By Sep 15 By Oct 1
150,000 <1% 16% 68% 97% 99% 99%
175,000 <1% <1% <1% 22% 41% 53%
200,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% 10% 20%
225,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% 7%
250,000 <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

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View Projections

Below you can find our projections for every US state and 63 countries (including all 27 European Union countries).

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US

United States    
Alabama Kentucky Ohio
Alaska Louisiana Oklahoma
Arizona Maine Oregon
Arkansas Maryland Pennsylvania
California Massachusetts Puerto Rico
Colorado Michigan Rhode Island
Connecticut Minnesota South Carolina
Delaware Mississippi South Dakota
District Of Columbia Missouri Tennessee
Florida Montana Texas
Georgia Nebraska Utah
Guam Nevada Vermont
Hawaii New Hampshire Virgin Islands
Idaho New Jersey Virginia
Illinois New Mexico Washington
Indiana New York West Virginia
Iowa North Carolina Wisconsin
Kansas North Dakota Wyoming

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US Counties

US Counties    
AZ - Maricopa FL - Orange NY - Nassau
CA - Alameda FL - Palm Beach NY - New York City
CA - Los Angeles IL - Cook NY - Suffolk
CA - Orange LA - Orleans NY - Westchester
CA - Riverside MA - Middlesex PA - Philadelphia
CA - Sacramento MA - Suffolk TX - Bexar
CA - San Bernardino MI - Wayne TX - Dallas
CA - San Diego NJ - Bergen TX - Harris
CA - Santa Clara NJ - Essex TX - Tarrant
FL - Broward NJ - Hudson WA - King
FL - Hillsborough NV - Clark  
FL - Miami-Dade NV - Washoe  

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Global Projections

Canada  
Alberta Ontario
British Columbia Quebec

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Europe    
Austria Greece Poland
Belarus Hungary Portugal
Belgium Iceland Romania
Bulgaria Ireland Serbia
Croatia Italy Slovakia
Cyprus Latvia Slovenia
Czechia Lithuania Spain
Denmark Luxembourg Sweden
Estonia Malta Switzerland
Finland Moldova Ukraine
France Netherlands United Kingdom
Germany Norway  

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Rest of World    
Algeria Ecuador Nigeria
Argentina Egypt Pakistan
Australia Honduras Panama
Bangladesh India Peru
Bolivia Indonesia Philippines
Brazil Iran Russia
Canada Israel Saudi Arabia
Chile Japan South Africa
China Kuwait South Korea
Colombia Malaysia Turkey
Cuba Mexico United Arab Emirates
Dominican Republic Morocco  

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US Summary

States are ordered by descending projected deaths (by October 1).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
United States 129,431 187,318 565 57,887 45% 157,126 236,513
New York 32,137 33,356 1,715 1,219 4% 32,189 37,912
New Jersey 15,164 16,374 1,843 1,210 8% 15,313 17,877
California 6,315 13,132 332 6,817 108% 8,696 20,905
Illinois 7,005 9,779 772 2,774 40% 7,685 13,802
Massachusetts 8,149 9,406 1,353 1,257 15% 8,374 11,536
Florida 3,684 8,949 417 5,265 143% 5,040 16,935
Pennsylvania 6,746 8,806 688 2,060 31% 6,997 13,253
Texas 2,592 7,721 266 5,129 198% 3,815 16,017
Michigan 6,215 7,379 739 1,164 19% 6,297 10,497
Georgia 2,857 6,201 584 3,344 117% 3,658 10,765
Arizona 1,798 5,589 768 3,791 211% 3,608 8,454
Louisiana 3,278 4,791 1,031 1,513 46% 3,484 6,696
Ohio 2,903 4,774 408 1,871 64% 3,194 8,585
Connecticut 4,335 4,722 1,324 387 9% 4,385 5,457
Maryland 3,223 4,458 737 1,235 38% 3,445 6,621
Indiana 2,681 3,785 562 1,104 41% 2,805 6,738
North Carolina 1,419 3,018 288 1,599 113% 1,780 6,381
Virginia 1,845 2,983 349 1,138 62% 1,966 5,429
Alabama 1,006 2,900 591 1,894 188% 1,452 4,839
Minnesota 1,503 2,481 440 978 65% 1,665 4,312
South Carolina 793 2,461 478 1,668 210% 1,320 4,438
Colorado 1,701 2,356 409 655 39% 1,765 4,206
Mississippi 1,103 2,247 755 1,144 104% 1,349 3,696
Washington 1,352 2,088 274 736 54% 1,500 3,489
Tennessee 633 2,079 304 1,446 228% 1,005 3,775
Missouri 1,047 1,648 269 601 57% 1,138 3,229
Wisconsin 796 1,468 252 672 84% 925 2,923
Rhode Island 960 1,324 1,250 364 38% 1,037 1,837
Nevada 528 1,275 414 747 141% 697 2,191
Kentucky 585 1,097 246 512 88% 662 2,208
Arkansas 281 972 322 691 246% 421 1,955
Iowa 721 942 299 221 31% 754 1,500
New Mexico 511 875 417 364 71% 575 1,625
Oklahoma 398 696 176 298 75% 430 1,625
District of Columbia 555 685 971 130 23% 578 968
Delaware 512 667 685 155 30% 533 1,077
New Hampshire 376 635 467 259 69% 416 1,157
Oregon 209 528 125 319 153% 256 1,118
Nebraska 284 525 271 241 85% 347 854
Utah 181 506 158 325 180% 231 1,352
Kansas 282 433 149 151 54% 299 909
Puerto Rico 154 213 67 59 38% 162 396
Idaho 93 196 110 103 111% 111 344
South Dakota 97 181 205 84 87% 114 305
Maine 105 147 109 42 40% 112 257
West Virginia 93 119 66 26 28% 98 177
North Dakota 80 108 142 28 35% 89 151
Vermont 56 77 123 21 38% 58 118
Montana 23 51 48 28 122% 25 111
Alaska 15 37 51 22 147% 16 103
Wyoming 20 30 52 10 50% 23 44
Hawaii 19 26 18 7 37% 20 39
Virgin Islands 6 11 105 5 83% 6 18
Guam 5 7 42 2 40% 5 15
Northern Mariana Islands 2 3 54 1 50% 2 7

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Europe Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-10-01). Our Europe estimates currently include 35 European countries (including the entire European Union).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Europe 182,524 202,284 341 19,760 11% 187,126 230,627
United Kingdom 44,216 48,721 721 4,505 10% 45,219 52,196
Italy 34,833 36,458 604 1,625 5% 35,069 40,193
France 29,896 30,883 461 987 3% 29,926 35,454
Spain 28,385 29,213 622 828 3% 28,433 31,181
Germany 9,010 10,404 125 1,394 15% 9,082 13,454
Belgium 9,765 10,029 875 264 3% 9,788 10,754
Netherlands 6,132 6,455 374 323 5% 6,168 7,078
Sweden 5,420 6,343 620 923 17% 5,802 7,570
Romania 1,708 3,846 198 2,138 125% 2,445 4,970
Ukraine 1,227 3,185 72 1,958 160% 1,933 4,974
Poland 1,507 3,068 81 1,561 104% 1,901 4,502
Switzerland 1,965 2,052 239 87 4% 1,976 2,381
Portugal 1,598 1,990 194 392 25% 1,666 2,609
Ireland 1,740 1,823 372 83 5% 1,747 2,198
Moldova 572 1,447 358 875 153% 983 2,072
Belarus 412 870 92 458 111% 555 1,631
Austria 705 805 91 100 14% 720 957
Hungary 588 771 79 183 31% 612 1,103
Denmark 606 670 115 64 11% 620 824
Bulgaria 239 655 94 416 174% 365 999
Serbia 298 516 74 218 73% 344 802
Czechia 353 461 43 108 31% 363 597
Finland 329 368 67 39 12% 335 479
Norway 251 272 51 21 8% 257 311
Greece 192 221 21 29 15% 203 267
Croatia 112 180 44 68 61% 125 245
Slovenia 111 122 59 11 10% 113 151
Luxembourg 110 118 192 8 7% 112 136
Lithuania 79 114 41 35 44% 88 174
Estonia 69 88 66 19 28% 75 149
Latvia 30 46 24 16 53% 32 78
Slovakia 28 35 6 7 25% 28 58
Cyprus 19 29 33 10 53% 20 46
Malta 9 13 26 4 44% 11 15
Iceland 10 13 38 3 30% 10 19

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Rest of World Summary

Countries are ordered by descending projected deaths (by 2020-10-01).

  Current Deaths Projected Deaths - Mean Projected Deaths / 1M Additional Deaths - Mean Additional Deaths (% of Current Deaths) Projected Deaths - 2.5th Percentile Projected Deaths - 97.5th Percentile
Rest of World 202,858 527,551 102 324,693 160% 348,534 811,551
Brazil 61,884 132,372 627 70,488 114% 103,204 198,751
India 18,655 91,820 67 73,165 392% 39,431 186,508
Mexico 29,843 80,613 632 50,770 170% 60,274 93,645
Peru 10,226 22,413 689 12,187 119% 15,972 31,714
Colombia 3,851 21,458 426 17,607 457% 13,076 28,618
Iran 11,260 20,459 247 9,199 82% 16,741 26,208
Russia 9,844 19,406 133 9,562 97% 13,048 31,292
South Africa 2,952 14,537 248 11,585 392% 7,836 20,651
Egypt 3,201 13,254 132 10,053 314% 7,751 20,820
Chile 6,051 12,942 683 6,891 114% 8,012 18,856
Pakistan 4,551 12,447 57 7,896 174% 7,812 20,075
Canada 8,722 10,192 272 1,470 17% 8,961 13,021
Indonesia 3,036 9,123 34 6,087 200% 4,956 14,906
Bangladesh 1,968 8,263 51 6,295 320% 4,414 13,942
Turkey 5,186 7,754 93 2,568 50% 5,497 12,709
Argentina 1,437 7,466 167 6,029 420% 3,630 12,699
Bolivia 1,320 7,038 611 5,718 433% 3,448 10,727
Ecuador 4,700 6,617 381 1,917 41% 4,991 11,030
Saudi Arabia 1,802 5,257 153 3,455 192% 3,241 7,187
China 4,641 4,647 3 6 0% 4,641 4,678
Honduras 605 3,356 344 2,751 455% 2,253 5,072
Dominican Republic 775 2,911 271 2,136 276% 1,080 5,587
Philippines 1,280 2,672 25 1,392 109% 1,427 4,994
Panama 698 2,666 628 1,968 282% 1,741 3,664
Algeria 937 2,118 49 1,181 126% 1,284 4,206
Nigeria 628 1,965 10 1,337 213% 902 4,075
Japan 977 1,212 10 235 24% 981 1,756
Kuwait 360 582 138 222 62% 403 984
Israel 326 443 52 117 36% 340 701
United Arab Emirates 318 430 44 112 35% 337 740
South Korea 283 356 7 73 26% 284 567
Morocco 230 273 7 43 19% 237 411
Malaysia 121 270 8 149 123% 135 466
Australia 104 116 5 12 12% 104 154
Cuba 86 103 9 17 20% 90 137