We present a new, simple nowcasting model that estimates true infections in the US. We have estimates for all US states and all 3,000+ US counties. For our projections for the upcoming months, see our Path to Normality page.

For more maps, including county-level views, visit the Maps page.

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Recent Updates

For regular updates and insights, follow Youyang Gu on Twitter: 

See more past updates here.

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US Infections Estimates (Updated Daily)

More details

Data from The COVID Tracking Project. Due to the inherent lag in the reporting of cases, we do not have estimates of infections for the last 14 days.

Last Updated: Saturday, February 27, 2021 (1am ET)

Newly Vaccinated (as of Feb 26): 749,000 / day (468 / 100k)
Total Vaccinated (as of Feb 26): 14.4% (1 in 7 | 47.6 million)

Newly Infected (as of Feb 12): 164,000 / day (50 / 100k)
Currently Infected (as of Feb 12): 1 in 110 (0.9% | 3.0 million)
Total Infected (as of Feb 12): 28.2% (1 in 4 | 93.5 million)

Rt (as of Feb 12): 0.89
Adjusted Positivity Rate (as of Feb 26): 4.6%
Infection-to-Case Ratio (as of Feb 26): 2.4 (41% detection rate)

Our infections estimates include all infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. As of January 2021, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US to be roughly 2-4x higher than the reported cases (25-50% detection rate). See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject. Because not all currently infected individuals are infectious, we recommend dividing the “currently infected” estimate by 2-4 to get a sense of the number of currently infectious individuals.

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View US Infections Estimates

Below, we have infection and vaccination estimates for the US, all 50 states, DC, and 4 US territories. For county-level estimates, see the next section.

United States    
Alaska Louisiana Oklahoma
Alabama Massachusetts Oregon
Arkansas Maryland Pennsylvania
Arizona Maine Puerto Rico
California Michigan Rhode Island
Colorado Minnesota South Carolina
Connecticut Missouri South Dakota
District of Columbia Northern Mariana Islands Tennessee
Delaware Mississippi Texas
Florida Montana Utah
Georgia North Carolina Virginia
Guam North Dakota Virgin Islands
Hawaii Nebraska Vermont
Iowa New Hampshire Washington
Idaho New Jersey Wisconsin
Illinois New Mexico West Virginia
Indiana Nevada Wyoming
Kansas New York  
Kentucky Ohio  

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US Counties Infections Estimates

We have infections estimates for all 3,000+ US counties (and county equivalents). Click on a state to view the counties in that state. You can then select the county to view detailed infection estimates. Or you can use our county-level summary page for fast lookup of specific counties.

US Counties (Summary)    
Alaska Kentucky New York
Alabama Louisiana Ohio
Arkansas Massachusetts Oklahoma
Arizona Maryland Oregon
California Maine Pennsylvania
Colorado Michigan Rhode Island
Connecticut Minnesota South Carolina
District of Columbia Missouri South Dakota
Delaware Mississippi Tennessee
Florida Montana Texas
Georgia North Carolina Utah
Hawaii North Dakota Virginia
Iowa Nebraska Vermont
Idaho New Hampshire Washington
Illinois New Jersey Wisconsin
Indiana New Mexico West Virginia
Kansas Nevada Wyoming

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The below sections are from our old COVID-19 projections model, and are no longer being updated. But we will leave them here for your reference.

COVID-19 Projections (Not Actively Updated)

Note: We ended our death forecasting project on October 5, 2020. See our blog post here. You can find the old project below.

We present an intuitive COVID-19 model that adds machine learning techniques on top of a classic infectious disease model to make projections for infections and deaths for the US and 70 other countries. The countries our projections cover encompass 6.4 billion people and account for more than 95% of all global reported COVID-19 deaths.

Old Updates

See our old updates here.

View Projections

Below you can find our projections for every US state and 70 countries (including all 27 European Union countries). For reproduction number estimates, you can see also visit our Infections Tracker page.

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US

United States    
Alaska Louisiana Oklahoma
Alabama Massachusetts Oregon
Arkansas Maryland Pennsylvania
Arizona Maine Puerto Rico
California Michigan Rhode Island
Colorado Minnesota South Carolina
Connecticut Missouri South Dakota
District of Columbia Northern Mariana Islands Tennessee
Delaware Mississippi Texas
Florida Montana Utah
Georgia North Carolina Virginia
Guam North Dakota Virgin Islands
Hawaii Nebraska Vermont
Iowa New Hampshire Washington
Idaho New Jersey Wisconsin
Illinois New Mexico West Virginia
Indiana Nevada Wyoming
Kansas New York  
Kentucky Ohio  

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US Counties

US Counties    
AZ - Maricopa FL - Orange NY - Nassau
CA - Alameda FL - Palm Beach NY - New York City
CA - Los Angeles IL - Cook NY - Suffolk
CA - Orange LA - Orleans NY - Westchester
CA - Riverside MA - Middlesex PA - Philadelphia
CA - Sacramento MA - Suffolk TX - Bexar
CA - San Bernardino MI - Wayne TX - Dallas
CA - San Diego NJ - Bergen TX - Harris
CA - Santa Clara NJ - Essex TX - Tarrant
FL - Broward NJ - Hudson WA - King
FL - Hillsborough NV - Clark  
FL - Miami-Dade NV - Washoe  

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Global Projections

Canada  
Alberta Ontario
British Columbia Quebec

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Europe    
Austria Greece Poland
Belarus Hungary Portugal
Belgium Iceland Romania
Bulgaria Ireland Serbia
Croatia Italy Slovakia
Cyprus Latvia Slovenia
Czechia Lithuania Spain
Denmark Luxembourg Sweden
Estonia Malta Switzerland
Finland Moldova Ukraine
France Netherlands United Kingdom
Germany Norway  

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Rest of World    
Algeria Ecuador Nigeria
Argentina Egypt Pakistan
Australia Honduras Panama
Bangladesh India Peru
Bolivia Indonesia Philippines
Brazil Iran Russia
Canada Israel Saudi Arabia
Chile Japan South Africa
China Kuwait South Korea
Colombia Malaysia Turkey
Cuba Mexico United Arab Emirates
Dominican Republic Morocco