Past Updates

Here you will find some of our past updates.

• January 14: We broke down vaccine doses administered into 1st and 2nd doses. You can find this on our Path to Herd Immunity page, or on all of our plots.
• January 12: We added vaccination plots to the infections page for every US state (and nationally) based on the latest CDC data. For example, see the vaccination progress for the US. Scroll down or click here to find your state. See a map of the vaccination progress for all 50 states here.
• January 7: See our new thread for an analysis of existing COVID-19 population immunity and its correlation with the severity of this current wave.
• January 5: We made a major update to our Path to Herd Immunity page, incorporating the latest vaccination data from the CDC and preliminary information on the new COVID-19 strain.
• December 29: See why our total infected estimates differ from the CDC.
• December 16: See our analysis of the effectiveness of the Kansas mask mandate.
• December 14: I’ve self-funded this project over the past 9 months. Donate to help me keep covid19-projections.com running.
• December 9: See our latest writeup, Path to Herd Immunity: 2021 Outlook of COVID-19 in the US, which models how the COVID-19 vaccine can help the US achieve herd immunity.
• November 25: We have released a writeup of our methodology: Estimating True Infections Revisited: A Simple Nowcasting Model to Estimate Prevalent Cases in the US.
• November 23: We released detailed county-by-county estimates for every US county. You can view them below. You can view maps of these estimates on the new Maps page.
• November 18: We are re-launching this website with nowcasting of infections estimates in the US (what has happened/is happening). You can download all of our estimates here.

Old Updates

• November 2: Our final October 5 projections estimated 231,000 (221-245k) US deaths by November 1, 2020. The true November 1 death toll was 230,995 (as reported by Johns Hopkins University). See how our final forecasts tracked the true results here. See our updated historical performance here.
• October 5: We have released our final update. Read Youyang Gu’s blog post to read more about this decision. See our Weekly Update on Twitter. Thank you for your support over the past six months.
• August 27: See a comprehensive list of our past Twitter threads here.
• August 10: See our new findings regarding the role of immunity, behavior, and interventions in the spread of COVID-19. We use Louisiana as a case study.
• August 5: We released a report, Estimating True Infections: A Simple Heuristic to Measure Implied Infection Fatality Rate that explains our findings regarding the relationship between true infections, reported cases, test positivity rate, and infection fatality rate for COVID-19. You can view a summary on our Twitter.
• June 24: We have open-sourced our SEIR simulator. This is the underlying SEIR model without the machine learning layer to learn the parameters. If your system supports Python, you can generate your own simulations in under 5 minutes. No prior Python experience is needed.
• June 16: We have open-sourced our code to evaluate COVID-19 models. The goal of this project is to evaluate various models’ historical point forecasts in a transparent, rigorous, and non-biased manner.
• April 5: covid19-projections.com launched.