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Last updated on: 2020-10-06 18:13:10 ET

Final Update: 2020-10-05 was our last model update. This page will no longer be maintained. For more information, read Youyang Gu's blog post. Follow @youyanggu on Twitter for continued COVID-19 insights. Thank you for your support over the past year.

We incorporate state-by-state reopenings into our projections. Read more about our reopening assumptions here.

See how the US would have fared if everyone began social distancing one week earlier or one week later.

We ran a simulation on what would happen if just 20% of infected individuals reduced their own transmission by 25% (such as by self-quarantining immediately after showing symptoms). US deaths would be 30% lower by June, and up to 50% lower by September. See the results here.

Population: 331,814,684

Tests per day target by November 1: 2,797,424 (assumes 40% asymptomatic and 10 contacts tested per infection)