Back to covid19-projections.com

Last updated on: 2020-10-06 18:13:10 ET

Final Update: 2020-10-05 was our last model update. This page will no longer be maintained. For more information, read Youyang Gu's blog post. Follow @youyanggu on Twitter for continued COVID-19 insights. Thank you for your support over the past year.

We incorporate state-by-state reopenings into our projections. Read more about our reopening assumptions here.

See how the US would have fared if everyone began social distancing one week earlier or one week later.

We ran a simulation on what would happen if just 20% of infected individuals reduced their own transmission by 25% (such as by self-quarantining immediately after showing symptoms). US deaths would be 30% lower by June, and up to 50% lower by September. See the results here.

Mar 2020Apr 2020May 2020Jun 2020Jul 2020Aug 2020Sep 2020Oct 2020Nov 20200100020000100k200k012
United StatesCurrent deaths: 209,791 | Projected total deaths: 230,669 (by Nov 1)Deaths per dayTotal deathsRDeaths per dayTotal deathsReproduction number - R_t (estimate)
Population: 331,814,684

Tests per day target by November 1: 2,797,424 (assumes 40% asymptomatic and 10 contacts tested per infection)
Mar 2020Apr 2020May 2020Jun 2020Jul 2020Aug 2020Sep 2020Oct 2020Nov 202000.5M1M05M10M050M
United StatesNewly Infected: 272,317 | Total Infected: 16.1% (As of Oct 5)Newly infectedCurrently infectedTotal infectedNewly infected (estimate)Currently infected (estimate)Total infected (estimate)