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Last updated on: 2020-05-29 01:47:42 ET

In this scenario, we show how the course of the epidemic would be different if just 20% of infected individuals immediately self-quarantine after showing symptoms, reducing their own transmission by 25%. For the remaining 80% of infected individuals, we assume normal transmission. We assume all other parameters are identical to the current situation. As the simulation below shows, even a simple 25% reduction in transmission by just 20% of individuals can lower the death toll by close to half over a 6-month period.

For our latest US projections based on current data, see here.