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Last updated on: 2020-10-06 18:13:23 ET

Final Update: 2020-10-05 was our last model update. This page will no longer be maintained. For more information, read Youyang Gu's blog post. Follow @youyanggu on Twitter for continued COVID-19 insights. Thank you for your support over the past year.

Approximate Reopen Date: Jun 1, 2020
US reopening timelines according to The New York Times. All reopenings are assumed to be gradual. Read more about our reopening assumptions here.

Related forecasts: US || New York || Counties: Nassau | New York City | Suffolk | Westchester

Mar 2020Apr 2020May 2020Jun 2020Jul 2020Aug 2020Sep 2020Oct 2020Nov 202005001000010k20k30k01234
US | New YorkCurrent deaths: 33,205 | Projected total deaths: 33,671 (by Nov 1)Deaths per dayTotal deathsRDeaths per dayTotal deathsReproduction number - R_t (estimate)
Population: 19,453,561

Tests per day target by November 1: 95,219 (assumes 40% asymptomatic and 10 contacts tested per infection)
Mar 2020Apr 2020May 2020Jun 2020Jul 2020Aug 2020Sep 2020Oct 2020Nov 20200100k200k01M2M3M05M
US | New YorkNewly Infected: 5,594 | Total Infected: 21.7% (As of Oct 5)Newly infectedCurrently infectedTotal infectedNewly infected (estimate)Currently infected (estimate)Total infected (estimate)