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Last updated on: 2020-10-06 18:14:53 ET

Final Update: 2020-10-05 was our last model update. This page will no longer be maintained. For more information, read Youyang Gu's blog post. Follow @youyanggu on Twitter for continued COVID-19 insights. Thank you for your support over the past year.

Europe: We assume a late-May reopening.

United Kingdom note: On August 17, UK revised their deaths downwards by over 5,000 from 46,791 to 41,454 deaths.

Disclaimer: Our projections are optimized for the United States. Please make sure to also consult your local health officials and experts. Read our full assumptions and limitations here.

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United KingdomCurrent deaths: 42,440 | Projected total deaths: 44,747 (by 2020-11-01)Deaths per dayTotal deathsRDeaths per dayTotal deathsReproduction number - R_t (estimate)
Population: 67,530,172

Tests per day target by November 1: 217,708 (assumes 40% asymptomatic and 10 contacts tested per infection)
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United KingdomNewly Infected: 36,226 | Total Infected: 9.1% (As of 2020-10-05)Newly infectedCurrently infectedTotal infectedNewly infected (estimate)Currently infected (estimate)Total infected (estimate)