Model Comparison with IHME

On this page, we show several plots comparing our projections with the IHME model.

Total Deaths

Back to Top

Daily Deaths

Back to Top

CDC Projections

Back to Top

Historical Projections

Back to Top

Current Projections

Back to Top

Old Comparisons of Projections for August 4

As of May 4, we are no longer updating this page. Please see our About to see most recent comparisons with the IHME model.

We will compare our daily projections with the IHME projections for five of the most heavily-impacted regions: US, New York, Michigan, Italy, and France. Note that while we update our projections daily, IHME only updates their projections 2-3 times a week.

See here for a comparison of our historical projections and why we think the IHME model is flawed.

Notes

A strikethrough means that the current deaths have already exceeded the total projected deaths as of May 4.

* Starting on April 15, we assume a relaxing of social distancing in US and Europe starting on June 1, leading to higher projections.

^ Starting on April 23, we include probable deaths in our US projections, following new CDC guidelines from April 14 onwards to include both confirmed and probable deaths.

US

Date Our US proj. death total IHME US proj. death total
April 9, 2020 62,225 (37-106k) 60,415 (31-127k)
April 10, 2020 70,699 (41-125k) 61,545 (26-156k)
April 11, 2020 75,870 (43-137k) 61,545 (26-156k)
April 12, 2020 71,959 (43-125k) 61,545 (26-156k)
April 13, 2020 71,731 (45-121k) 68,841 (30-176k)
April 14, 2020 85,431 (50-157k) 68,841 (30-176k)
April 15, 2020* 114,416 (55-231k) 68,841 (30-176k)
April 16, 2020 111,673 (55-232k) 68,841 (30-176k)
April 17, 2020 120,541 (69-229k) 60,308 (34-141k)
April 18, 2020 121,830 (70-227k) 60,308 (34-141k)
April 19, 2020 120,633 (70-227k) 60,308 (34-141k)
April 20, 2020 117,123 (69-229k) 60,308 (34-141k)
April 21, 2020 129,658 (71-281k) 65,976 (45-125k)
April 22, 2020 139,165 (76-292k) 67,641 (48-124k)
April 23, 2020^ 172,746 (92-327k) 67,641 (48-124k)
April 24, 2020 165,539 (88-322k) 67,641 (48-124k)
April 25, 2020 160,293 (88-311k) 67,641 (48-124k)
April 26, 2020 155,552 (87-306k) 67,641 (48-124k)
April 27, 2020 153,373 (87-303k) 74,073 (56-131k)
April 28, 2020 150,760 (88-294k) 74,073 (56-131k)
April 29, 2020 166,200 (94-308k) 72,433 (59-115k)
April 30, 2020 170,041 (98-293k) 72,433 (59-115k)
May 1, 2020 168,445 (98-289k) 72,433 (59-115k)
May 2, 2020 163,789 (95-283k) 72,433 (59-115k)
May 3, 2020 161,321 (95-282k) 72,433 (59-115k)

Back to Top

US June-August

Date Our US Jun-Aug proj. death total IHME US Jun-Aug proj. death total
April 9, 2020 5,125 (0.8-17k) 51 (0-0.2k)
April 10, 2020 5,782 (0.8-20k) 225 (0-1200)
April 11, 2020 8,373 (0.9-30k) 225 (0-1200)
April 12, 2020 7,637 (0.7-27k) 225 (0-1200)
April 13, 2020 8,081 (1.0-28k) 620 (3-2900)
April 14, 2020 14,368 (1.9-51k) 620 (3-2900)
April 15, 2020* 28,354 (2.4-102k) 620 (3-2900)
April 16, 2020 26,828 (2.1-105k) 620 (3-2900)
April 17, 2020 29,829 (4.2-104k) 36 (0-300)
April 18, 2020 31,386 (4.3-104k) 36 (0-300)
April 19, 2020 29,993 (4.8-104k) 36 (0-300)
April 20, 2020 29,277 (4.0-108k) 36 (0-300)
April 21, 2020 37,886 (4.2-151k) 126 (0-560)
April 22, 2020 43,073 (4.6-160k) 197 (0-954)
April 23, 2020^ 60,104 (8.2-181k) 197 (0-954)
April 24, 2020 56,232 (7.4-179k) 197 (0-954)
April 25, 2020 52,722 (7.3-172k) 197 (0-954)
April 26, 2020 50,406 (7.1-170k) 197 (0-954)
April 27, 2020 50,406 (7.1-170k) 452 (1-2499)
April 28, 2020 48,238 (6.9-164k) 452 (1-2499)
April 29, 2020 58,305 (8.3-173k) 304 (0-1644)
April 30, 2020 60,757 (9.9-159k) 304 (0-1644)
May 1, 2020 60,123 (9.7-157k) 304 (0-1644)
May 2, 2020 57,528 (8.7-153k) 304 (0-1644)
May 3, 2020 55,874 (8.6-153k) 304 (0-1644)

Back to Top

New York

Date Our NY proj. death total IHME NY proj. death total
April 9, 2020 17,371 (13-24k) 13,306 (9-22k)
April 10, 2020 21,342 (14-35k) 13,463 (9-25k)
April 11, 2020 21,703 (15-31k) 13,463 (9-25k)
April 12, 2020 21,479 (15-29k) 13,463 (9-25k)
April 13, 2020 20,738 (16-27k) 14,542 (11-23k)
April 14, 2020 25,019 (18-40k) 14,542 (11-23k)
April 15, 2020* 33,384 (20-51k) 14,542 (11-23k)
April 16, 2020 31,418 (20-56k) 14,542 (11-23k)
April 17, 2020 39,193 (29-57k) 21,812 (13-43k)
April 18, 2020 37,996 (28-56k) 21,812 (13-43k)
April 19, 2020 38,193 (28-56k) 21,812 (13-43k)
April 20, 2020 36,527 (26-58k) 21,812 (13-43k)
April 21, 2020 35,238 (26-58k) 23,741 (18-36k)
April 22, 2020 32,470 (26-50k) 23,232 (19-33k)
April 23, 2020^ 44,689 (33-58k) 23,232 (19-33k)
April 24, 2020 40,501 (30-56k) 23,232 (19-33k)
April 25, 2020 40,926 (30-55k) 23,232 (19-33k)
April 26, 2020 39,296 (30-54k) 23,232 (19-33k)
April 27, 2020 38,916 (29-54k) 23,930 (21-30k)
April 28, 2020 37,130 (29-51k) 23,930 (21-30k)
April 29, 2020 37,086 (29-50k) 24,314 (22-29k)
April 30, 2020 35,189 (29-48k) 24,314 (22-29k)
May 1, 2020 35,280 (29-48k) 24,314 (22-29k)
May 2, 2020 33,829 (27-47k) 24,314 (22-29k)
May 3, 2020 34,619 (28-50k) 24,314 (22-29k)

Back to Top

Michigan

Date Our MI proj. death total IHME MI proj. death total
April 9, 2020 4,733 (2.7-8.8k) 2,103 (1.3-3.7k)
April 10, 2020 6,747 (3.9-12k) 1,977 (1.3-3.6k)
April 11, 2020 6,421 (3.7-11k) 1,977 (1.3-3.6k)
April 12, 2020 6,138 (3.6-10k) 1,977 (1.3-3.6k)
April 13, 2020 6,268 (3.9-10k) 2,373 (1.7-4.1k)
April 14, 2020 7,402 (3.9-15k) 2,373 (1.7-4.1k)
April 15, 2020* 8,196 (3.7-19k) 2,373 (1.7-4.1k)
April 16, 2020 7,631 (3.5-18k) 2,373 (1.7-4.1k)
April 17, 2020 9,029 (4.2-18k) 3,304 (2.1-6.8k)
April 18, 2020 7,619 (4.1-16k) 3,304 (2.1-6.8k)
April 19, 2020 7,588 (4.2-16k) 3,304 (2.1-6.8k)
April 20, 2020 7,573 (4.2-16k) 3,304 (2.1-6.8k)
April 21, 2020 6,798 (4.2-16k) 3,361 (2.6-5.4k)
April 22, 2020 7,859 (5.1-17k) 3,379 (2.7-5.1k)
April 23, 2020^ 11,230 (5.3-22k) 3,379 (2.7-5.1k)
April 24, 2020 10,600 (5.3-21k) 3,379 (2.7-5.1k)
April 25, 2020 9,098 (5.1-20k) 3,379 (2.7-5.1k)
April 26, 2020 10,131 (5.4-21k) 3,379 (2.7-5.1k)
April 27, 2020 9,878 (5.3-21k) 3,785 (3.3-4.9k)
April 28, 2020 10,509 (5.5-21k) 3,785 (3.3-4.9k)
April 29, 2020 10,411 (5.6-21k) 3,920 (3.6-4.9k)
April 30, 2020 10,268 (5.7-19k) 3,920 (3.6-4.9k)
May 1, 2020 9,464 (5.6-18k) 3,920 (3.6-4.9k)
May 2, 2020 10,386 (5.9-19k) 3,920 (3.6-4.9k)
May 3, 2020 9,635 (5.7-18k) 3,920 (3.6-4.9k)

Back to Top

Italy

Date Our Italy proj. death total IHME Italy proj. death total
April 9, 2020 29,402 (22-40k) 20,300 (19-22k)
April 10, 2020 29,908 (23-39k) 20,333 (19-22k)
April 11, 2020 33,829 (24-49k) 20,333 (19-22k)
April 12, 2020 32,909 (24-47k) 20,333 (19-22k)
April 13, 2020 33,596 (25-47k) 21,130 (20-23k)
April 14, 2020 35,239 (26-49k) 21,130 (20-23k)
April 15, 2020* 40,216 (27-79k) 21,130 (20-23k)
April 16, 2020 40,444 (27-71k) 21,130 (20-23k)
April 17, 2020 43,086 (31-73k) 26,007 (23-32k)
April 18, 2020 44,609 (31-73k) 26,007 (23-32k)
April 19, 2020 44,283 (31-72k) 26,007 (23-32k)
April 20, 2020 44,117 (32-72k) 26,007 (23-32k)
April 21, 2020 44,683 (32-71k) 26,600 (24-32k)
April 22, 2020 43,591 (32-66k) 26,867 (25-33k)
April 23, 2020 43,792 (33-66k) 26,867 (25-33k)
April 24, 2020 44,422 (33-69k) 26,867 (25-33k)
April 25, 2020 44,367 (33-68k) 26,867 (25-33k)
April 26, 2020 43,718 (33-68k) 26,867 (25-33k)
April 27, 2020 43,406 (33-67k) 27,425 (26-30k)
April 28, 2020 42,860 (33-65k) 27,425 (26-30k)
April 29, 2020 41,432 (33-60k) 27,777 (27-30k)
April 30, 2020 42,323 (33-60k) 27,777 (27-30k)
May 1, 2020 42,087 (33-59k) 27,777 (27-30k)
May 2, 2020 43,689 (33-66k) 27,777 (27-30k)
May 3, 2020 42,777 (33-66k) 27,777 (27-30k)

Back to Top

France

Date Our France proj. death total IHME France proj. death total
April 9, 2020 36,881 (21-58k) 15,058 (12-18k)
April 10, 2020 36,621 (21-58k) 15,741 (13-21k)
April 11, 2020 37,234 (21-63k) 15,741 (13-21k)
April 12, 2020 36,201 (20-63k) 15,741 (13-21k)
April 13, 2020 35,063 (21-62k) 17,448 (15-23k)
April 14, 2020 35,458 (22-62k) 17,448 (15-23k)
April 15, 2020* 42,777 (23-92k) 17,448 (15-23k)
April 16, 2020 41,280 (23-90k) 17,448 (15-23k)
April 17, 2020 54,095 (31-104k) 22,555 (19-30k)
April 18, 2020 51,633 (31-99k) 22,555 (19-30k)
April 19, 2020 44,196 (27-84k) 22,555 (19-30k)
April 20, 2020 43,242 (27-83k) 22,555 (19-30k)
April 21, 2020 41,643 (27-81k) 23,104 (20-29k)
April 22, 2020 40,156 (28-74k) 23,304 (21-30k)
April 23, 2020 40,752 (26-93k) 23,304 (21-30k)
April 24, 2020 40,951 (26-93k) 23,304 (21-30k)
April 25, 2020 39,784 (26-89k) 23,304 (21-30k)
April 26, 2020 38,966 (26-88k) 23,304 (21-30k)
April 27, 2020 38,738 (26-87k) 24,719 (23-30k)
April 28, 2020 37,420 (27-80k) 24,719 (23-30k)
April 29, 2020 39,007 (27-86k) 25,096 (23-30k)
April 30, 2020 39,261 (27-86k) 25,096 (23-30k)
May 1, 2020 38,763 (27-85k) 25,096 (23-30k)
May 2, 2020 38,255 (27-83k) 25,096 (23-30k)
May 3, 2020 37,741 (27-81k) 25,096 (23-30k)