Path to Herd Immunity: 2021 Outlook of COVID-19 in the US

By: Youyang Gu
December 9, 2020 (Last Updated: January 21, 2021; CDC plots updated every weekday)

With the availability of the COVID-19 vaccine, we present our best estimate of the path to COVID-19 herd immunity in the United States. Herd immunity will be reached through immunity from two sources: vaccination and natural infection. On this page, we provide the latest COVID-19 vaccine projections and current vaccination progress.

Last updated - CDC vaccination data plots: Thu, Jan 21 2021 10pm ET
Last updated - Path to Herd Immunity plots: Thu, Jan 21 2021 10pm ET

Note: Our infections estimates include all new infected individuals of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not just those that took a COVID-19 test and tested positive. As of January 2021, we estimate the true number of infected individuals in the US to be roughly 2-4x higher than the reported cases (25-50% detection rate). See our writeup, Estimating True Infections, for a more detailed look into this subject.

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Updates

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Table of Contents

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Summary

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Relevant Twitter Threads

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Disclaimers

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Assumptions

The underlying assumptions behind our estimates are presented below:

Basic Assumptions

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Vaccination Assumptions

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Infection Assumptions

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Corollaries

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Questions? Comments? Feedback?

You can reach out to Youyang Gu via the Contact page.