Historical Performance

On this page, we present a weekly evaluation of our model’s historical performance along with other models in the COVID-19 Forecast Hub. The forecasts from these models are sent to the CDC weekly and presented on the CDC COVID-19 Forecasting page.

We have open-sourced the code and output used to generate these evaluations here. We believe in a fully transparent evaluation methodology, and publicly releasing all of our code and data is the best way to do so.

Click here to see some sample plots of our past projections.

The charts below represent past state-by-state and US projections evaluated on cumulative deaths on the specified evaluation date (June 20, June 13, etc). As the charts may be outdated, please consult our evaluation page for the latest data.

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Observations

Additional Notes

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4 Week Ahead

State-by-state projections

States comparison

US projections

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October 3

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September 26

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September 19

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September 12

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September 5

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August 29

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August 22

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August 15

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August 8

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August 1

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July 25

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July 18

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July 11

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July 4

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June 27

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June 20

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June 13

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June 6

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May 30

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May 23

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May 16

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May 9

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May 2

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