Our model tries to do what no other model currently does (to the best of our knowledge): provide an estimate for the R values and the true number of infected individuals in every region.

Testing Targets

You can see our testing targets per day for the US and all 50 states, globally, and select US counties + subregions. To make these estimates, we use Harvard Global Health Institute’s study that recommends 10 contacts per infected individual.

R0 value estimates

May 15 update: You can now view a graph of our R_t estimates over time in all of our projections (e.g. US). You can also download the raw R_t time series on our GitHub (starting from May 15 projections).

May 6 update: You can now download our R estimates as csv files on our GitHub.

The below reproduction number (R) estimates are what our model has learned for each state/country. While we present a single value for the purpose of this chart, our model actually uses a weighted range of R values to make its projections. The initial R0 is the R value in early-to-mid March, right before states began implementing stay-at-home orders. We provide a longer explanation of how our model works here.

Notes

Note: You can click on the legend on the upper right corner of each plot below to hide/unhide the bars.

Number of Total Infected Individuals by Date

This is an estimate of the total number of infected individuals by each date. The infections estimate includes all infected individuals, not just those that took a COVID-19 test kit and tested positive. The vast majority of infected individuals did not get tested due to 1) they are asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic or 2) lack of available testing. As of May 18, we estimate that the true number of infections in the US is likely ~5x higher than reported cases. In March and April, when testing was not as prevalent, we estimate that ratio to be closer to 10-15x.

Last Updated: May 26, 2020

US

  Apr 1 Apr 15 May 1 May 15 Jun 1 Jun 15 Jul 1 Jul 15 Aug 1 Aug 15 Sep 1
United States 4,703,388 7,534,210 10,060,550 11,878,531 13,982,354 15,941,697 18,553,933 21,010,065 23,844,933 25,847,608 27,801,696
Alabama 19,060 35,774 56,563 76,184 106,982 140,811 187,837 232,364 284,023 321,004 358,700
Alaska 682 863 1,024 1,144 1,237 1,277 1,313 1,341 1,376 1,404 1,438
Arizona 27,764 52,373 88,200 126,533 191,818 267,915 376,005 478,324 594,853 675,548 754,519
Arkansas 5,014 8,392 12,102 15,123 19,274 23,197 28,129 32,512 37,481 41,202 45,359
California 169,123 289,059 422,138 534,893 670,550 803,215 1,009,491 1,244,262 1,571,362 1,844,126 2,142,188
Colorado 62,651 102,305 147,749 187,103 243,307 303,521 386,668 463,493 548,816 605,805 658,938
Connecticut 167,838 296,196 394,445 449,545 491,937 519,066 548,377 572,370 596,881 612,080 624,854
Delaware 9,911 20,993 34,299 45,831 59,341 71,670 89,135 106,797 127,856 142,449 155,511
District of Columbia 15,498 31,391 46,630 57,082 66,749 73,305 81,204 88,713 97,638 103,945 109,743
Florida 106,279 173,978 247,070 307,696 390,689 481,794 616,771 753,281 923,227 1,051,674 1,186,523
Georgia 88,830 140,371 194,406 248,650 331,659 413,117 511,694 593,451 678,915 737,465 795,844
Guam 539 717 870 961 1,022 1,057 1,099 1,136 1,178 1,211 1,250
Hawaii 994 1,494 1,912 2,177 2,385 2,490 2,589 2,670 2,763 2,836 2,921
Idaho 5,261 7,074 8,324 9,074 9,778 10,186 10,563 10,846 11,152 11,387 11,664
Illinois 180,200 333,288 522,171 694,501 908,889 1,113,210 1,407,970 1,704,657 2,048,895 2,277,873 2,472,026
Indiana 79,276 141,767 212,673 275,762 370,699 471,459 602,779 715,925 831,720 903,423 966,326
Iowa 14,421 28,104 47,263 69,643 108,720 150,742 204,528 250,687 298,951 330,985 361,631
Kansas 11,992 17,909 22,739 26,393 31,142 35,431 40,479 44,687 49,241 52,569 56,195
Kentucky 19,977 31,189 42,881 51,885 62,378 72,875 88,000 103,487 123,351 138,986 156,109
Louisiana 162,197 231,938 287,346 321,283 357,788 388,513 423,948 452,519 481,041 498,885 515,144
Maine 3,641 5,870 7,839 9,127 10,224 10,986 11,910 12,766 13,781 14,534 15,336
Maryland 79,734 163,169 244,329 303,617 378,542 451,245 543,738 623,019 704,570 755,157 799,246
Massachusetts 237,716 482,612 676,389 786,185 888,883 968,599 1,054,450 1,118,350 1,176,094 1,207,802 1,232,625
Michigan 298,794 445,883 550,979 608,444 651,657 678,861 708,894 734,686 763,131 782,538 800,875
Minnesota 20,966 53,328 92,462 126,221 173,638 225,895 302,025 376,097 462,770 523,183 580,980
Mississippi 22,317 40,988 66,417 93,648 140,064 191,851 259,773 318,397 378,364 415,984 449,689
Missouri 27,481 48,426 73,821 99,828 142,518 188,715 249,808 304,817 365,803 408,752 452,473
Montana 1,007 1,433 1,667 1,825 1,974 2,050 2,113 2,158 2,206 2,244 2,290
Nebraska 4,403 9,041 15,634 23,026 35,667 49,505 67,999 84,860 103,861 117,528 131,765
Nevada 20,442 31,228 42,189 51,093 63,633 76,153 92,446 107,199 123,906 136,017 148,826
New Hampshire 6,447 13,159 22,377 31,643 46,043 62,831 87,982 112,624 141,290 160,941 179,331
New Jersey 583,921 938,961 1,224,985 1,393,360 1,526,638 1,607,190 1,691,772 1,760,357 1,829,552 1,871,621 1,905,586
New Mexico 8,849 19,492 33,532 46,901 64,296 81,870 109,255 139,673 179,780 210,663 241,205
New York 1,678,996 2,305,455 2,693,249 2,875,137 2,994,407 3,061,874 3,129,012 3,180,561 3,230,843 3,261,013 3,285,940
North Carolina 26,335 52,911 81,388 104,033 131,773 160,294 202,167 245,524 301,539 345,734 393,828
North Dakota 1,738 3,411 5,719 8,339 12,725 17,332 23,287 28,581 34,487 38,768 43,291
Northern Mariana Islands 345 515 664 759 832 866 898 925 956 981 1,011
Ohio 65,590 128,588 206,361 278,433 387,866 510,801 686,522 853,561 1,044,079 1,174,286 1,297,990
Oklahoma 18,623 26,684 33,611 39,375 46,706 52,725 59,128 63,974 68,886 72,342 76,011
Oregon 8,378 12,147 15,307 17,314 19,047 20,386 22,181 24,029 26,475 28,487 30,782
Pennsylvania 163,053 352,395 536,289 665,876 793,715 897,736 1,035,349 1,170,049 1,330,734 1,444,427 1,549,646
Puerto Rico 7,220 10,547 13,214 14,845 16,178 17,130 18,335 19,503 20,955 22,080 23,316
Rhode Island 17,493 37,669 61,082 80,374 102,649 123,101 149,333 172,023 194,995 208,586 219,441
South Carolina 18,044 30,923 45,987 59,882 81,779 106,567 141,974 176,426 217,671 248,244 280,643
South Dakota 2,382 3,853 6,071 8,692 13,255 18,313 25,108 31,340 38,463 43,734 49,409
Tennessee 17,044 25,797 34,579 42,715 54,110 64,314 76,023 85,521 95,697 103,161 111,339
Texas 62,613 107,509 162,481 221,091 317,940 421,685 558,826 683,982 827,938 935,852 1,054,095
Utah 3,380 6,296 10,199 14,644 22,342 30,838 42,372 53,185 65,971 75,841 87,004
Vermont 3,661 4,682 5,425 5,849 6,133 6,312 6,529 6,721 6,942 7,111 7,305
Virgin Islands 298 483 643 748 832 874 907 934 965 990 1,020
Virginia 41,151 82,628 127,499 163,146 203,292 240,672 296,646 358,225 440,985 507,248 576,565
Washington 74,615 96,881 115,280 126,804 137,067 145,173 156,104 167,421 182,430 194,709 208,396
West Virginia 2,821 5,455 7,621 9,292 11,432 13,148 14,920 16,235 17,538 18,440 19,393
Wisconsin 26,216 40,097 53,485 63,338 75,943 88,092 104,040 118,817 136,095 148,984 163,075
Wyoming 167 519 971 1,464 2,210 2,862 3,528 4,003 4,461 4,769 5,086

Global

  Apr 1 Apr 15 May 1 May 15 Jun 1 Jun 15 Jul 1 Jul 15 Aug 1 Aug 15 Sep 1
Algeria 43,258 54,149 60,879 64,321 67,742 70,626 74,034 76,921 80,065 82,335 84,815
Argentina 16,669 28,017 44,288 61,796 88,389 119,640 175,357 247,059 366,502 493,874 682,459
Austria 72,263 87,030 96,008 100,502 104,455 107,237 110,067 112,176 114,245 115,635 117,091
Bangladesh 11,797 24,762 46,797 74,852 130,294 207,539 338,874 486,822 692,911 867,136 1,074,094
Belgium 921,038 1,223,833 1,383,483 1,449,035 1,498,937 1,529,910 1,556,997 1,573,802 1,586,961 1,593,628 1,598,784
Brazil 304,433 878,166 2,112,428 3,514,931 5,618,516 7,756,724 10,724,358 13,988,135 18,841,276 22,943,711 27,210,585
Bulgaria 7,679 12,510 18,923 25,126 34,852 46,339 63,930 82,294 106,121 125,189 146,849
Canada 249,015 500,677 726,097 868,608 996,421 1,094,942 1,222,266 1,346,423 1,496,974 1,606,821 1,713,019
Chile 15,818 35,306 69,694 114,800 204,674 327,955 533,593 767,411 1,105,119 1,404,328 1,755,146
China 369,101 371,371 372,910 373,790 374,464 374,786 374,991 375,090 375,157 375,188 375,211
Colombia 18,334 37,638 67,241 101,565 164,656 247,867 387,269 552,118 809,494 1,064,925 1,412,901
Croatia 7,623 11,225 14,363 16,448 18,851 20,998 23,654 25,995 28,631 30,579 32,740
Cyprus 1,503 1,947 2,328 2,559 2,741 2,837 2,935 3,017 3,113 3,191 3,285
Czechia 29,737 37,998 44,388 48,284 51,974 53,947 55,475 56,432 57,307 57,901 58,555
Denmark 55,775 70,271 80,930 87,050 93,110 97,759 102,791 106,711 110,649 113,296 116,020
Dominican Republic 23,951 34,511 43,415 49,265 56,143 62,596 71,181 79,801 91,584 102,177 115,690
Ecuador 57,682 162,786 296,341 385,951 471,076 540,513 633,506 726,542 846,235 942,949 1,048,932
Egypt 27,666 46,866 72,274 97,873 134,516 175,776 247,385 336,569 472,250 596,795 747,895
Estonia 6,066 7,996 9,642 10,672 11,561 11,982 12,362 12,662 13,003 13,276 13,605
Finland 21,872 35,307 44,388 49,407 54,675 59,118 64,368 68,819 73,649 77,082 80,738
France 3,520,744 4,328,394 4,764,295 4,953,225 5,111,426 5,222,024 5,330,386 5,405,445 5,470,474 5,506,143 5,534,979
Germany 769,489 1,035,329 1,211,707 1,304,992 1,398,349 1,475,658 1,565,389 1,639,730 1,717,724 1,770,421 1,823,118
Greece 17,869 21,586 24,467 26,121 27,716 29,001 30,446 31,616 32,855 33,749 34,745
Hungary 33,699 54,330 70,029 79,532 90,255 100,148 112,822 124,365 137,681 147,482 158,049
Iceland 1,162 1,336 1,459 1,531 1,586 1,616 1,647 1,673 1,704 1,729 1,759
India 77,572 179,986 377,200 597,540 990,542 1,506,663 2,379,530 3,433,104 5,137,279 6,915,648 9,512,869
Indonesia 56,788 89,724 128,945 163,872 206,366 242,368 294,068 358,093 467,039 586,258 771,527
Iran 537,510 635,581 730,438 819,567 941,135 1,046,793 1,162,944 1,253,484 1,348,863 1,417,163 1,489,446
Ireland 128,700 208,582 248,051 263,860 276,704 285,682 294,683 301,199 307,241 310,927 314,341
Israel 19,441 25,592 29,382 31,424 33,411 34,856 36,364 37,519 38,695 39,522 40,427
Italy 3,662,527 4,351,465 4,842,874 5,109,633 5,364,960 5,559,368 5,761,756 5,908,685 6,040,787 6,114,553 6,174,308
Japan 85,786 118,946 141,997 154,759 165,166 172,266 180,143 186,784 193,878 198,552 202,907
Latvia 1,464 2,376 3,211 3,768 4,304 4,562 4,754 4,901 5,069 5,205 5,370
Lithuania 5,192 7,167 8,895 10,001 11,126 11,938 12,781 13,429 14,097 14,577 15,114
Luxembourg 11,497 13,871 15,461 16,323 17,101 17,683 18,306 18,796 19,316 19,700 20,141
Malaysia 8,420 10,147 11,487 12,255 12,855 13,242 13,655 14,004 14,416 14,748 15,141
Malta 212 395 565 682 797 855 892 919 950 975 1,006
Mexico 101,024 309,049 699,033 1,213,050 2,171,528 3,444,401 5,783,921 8,608,244 12,338,938 15,025,526 17,349,270
Moldova 9,595 17,120 27,468 37,993 55,142 75,689 106,950 138,798 178,376 208,205 239,713
Morocco 16,832 19,714 21,373 22,149 22,654 23,026 23,507 23,958 24,492 24,895 25,341
Netherlands 589,458 748,003 859,458 920,113 979,576 1,026,744 1,078,419 1,118,221 1,156,410 1,179,548 1,200,124
Nigeria 5,481 13,465 24,193 32,815 45,078 58,765 79,749 103,548 140,275 177,403 230,662
Norway 26,688 31,955 35,016 36,547 37,892 38,869 39,896 40,693 41,522 42,122 42,798
Pakistan 18,773 52,695 103,631 154,500 239,271 344,856 512,741 693,341 935,052 1,134,172 1,367,162
Panama 14,997 22,461 30,056 35,958 43,882 52,237 64,399 77,497 96,440 114,147 137,169
Peru 51,096 157,156 328,799 517,697 806,413 1,102,126 1,513,784 1,976,686 2,703,646 3,359,597 4,086,224
Philippines 47,594 67,376 85,656 98,493 110,865 119,326 129,851 141,563 160,059 179,366 208,320
Poland 69,271 107,583 144,700 172,770 209,969 248,765 303,512 357,462 424,111 475,384 531,772
Portugal 112,347 152,530 185,645 206,553 229,242 247,574 268,064 284,391 300,881 311,755 322,495
Romania 74,952 119,054 165,037 200,258 245,269 287,352 340,521 387,936 440,912 478,251 516,535
Russia 47,517 140,941 315,913 481,021 736,955 1,039,378 1,499,483 1,971,544 2,565,686 3,020,339 3,508,389
Saudi Arabia 9,893 20,106 35,611 52,950 83,586 122,670 185,310 252,601 341,841 414,187 497,008
Serbia 13,069 19,093 24,026 27,175 30,661 33,607 37,066 39,973 43,110 45,367 47,833
Slovakia 2,196 3,551 4,217 4,579 4,942 5,155 5,331 5,454 5,580 5,674 5,785
Slovenia 11,513 14,223 15,866 16,709 17,477 18,062 18,696 19,196 19,719 20,097 20,520
South Africa 7,364 19,302 43,711 79,990 155,734 266,894 497,178 833,215 1,460,284 2,187,166 3,311,362
South Korea 31,328 35,630 38,954 41,149 43,698 45,754 47,902 49,484 51,013 52,043 53,111
Spain 2,412,423 2,847,198 3,115,328 3,243,135 3,354,732 3,434,808 3,515,054 3,571,996 3,622,708 3,651,641 3,676,200
Sweden 279,277 439,369 577,935 667,317 744,979 790,137 827,158 850,412 870,630 882,601 893,204
Switzerland 220,987 264,250 289,471 301,157 311,515 319,336 327,664 334,024 340,235 344,255 348,213
Turkey 243,222 359,391 433,394 470,608 496,747 512,568 530,129 545,538 563,226 576,021 589,140
Ukraine 23,934 43,068 67,722 92,080 131,741 179,962 254,977 333,907 436,766 519,105 612,549
United Kingdom 2,059,355 2,977,485 3,688,134 4,110,457 4,550,554 4,910,787 5,306,121 5,603,412 5,875,792 6,028,952 6,152,513